NOW the playoffs start

Now that we have finished with the "Play-in" games we can start the playoffs with the full slate of playoff caliber teams. Here is the Kool-Aided preview (I knew you just couldn't wait for this kind of analysis)...

Game 1. Saturday afternoon
Indianapolis @ Baltimore

In the playoffs some things are always a constant. 1. Defense wins games. 2. Manning loses games. I think that the Raven defense is good enough to bring the Colt offense to it's knees even if Manning is in top form. On the flip side I think the Raven's offense can score 21 on the Colt defense even if they had Brad Johnson under center.

Ravens - 24
Colts - 16

Game 2. Saturday evening
Philadelphia @ New Orleans

This game is intriguing in some ways and a bore in others. Neither team is capable of winning the Super Bowl so this is a Wild Card game being played in the Divisional Round. New Orleans is home and has a well rounded team. But they also have no playoff experience (outside of Brees). Philly is hot but I think their luck will run out. This one will come down to a big play by one of the Saint rookies (Colston or Bush).

New Orleans - 20
Philly - 17

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 15)

Vikings win but we don't get much help from the rest of the league. There is still time and there is still reason for optimism. 6-4 NFC record is still very solid and guarantee of 2 teams ahead of us losing this week.

Division Leaders

1. NFC North - Chicago (11-2, 9-0, 4-0) - clinched 1st round bye
2. NFC South - New Orleans (9-4, 8-1, 4-1) - maintains 2 game Division lead, helped bye resume by destroying Dallas.
3. NFC West - Seattle (8-5, 6-4, 3-2)- lucky to be in terrible division
4. NFC South - Dallas (8-5, 5-4, 2-3) - lost to NEW hottest team in NFC, holding on to division lead

Wild Card (overall, conference)

5. IN - NY Giants (7-6, 6-3) - nice win over Carolina, now home vs. Philly is big test.
6. IN - Philadelphia (7-6, -63) - battle with NYG for team to maintain WC position.
7. OUT - Atlanta (7-6, 5-4) - How 'bout them Cowboys!!
8. OUT - Minnesota (6-7, 6-4) - didn't get needed help in wk 14, this week should be better.
9. OUT - Carolina (6-7, 4-6)

St. Louis and San Fran are off the radar until they get to .500. Green Bay is out, now they can win to get a worse draft pick.

Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)...

• Dallas over Atlanta - CHECK
  
• Phildelphia over NY Giants - we need both to lose, but I think Philly will lose next week so beat the vaGiants.
  
• Pittsburgh over Carolina - not a huge deal but we can't let Carolina get back ahead of us.
  

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 14)

The roller coaster continues and Vikings fans are still hanging to playoff hopes (or nightmares) by a thread. Last week I posted what we needed to happen in 6 NFC playoff related games. 5 of those 6 happened as we need them, which would have been great (if only we would have won). So ultimately it just prolonged the inevitable. Here are where things stand...

Division Leaders

1. NFC North - Chicago (10-2, 8-0, 4-0)
2. NFC South - New Orleans (8-4, 7-1, 4-1) - now a 2 game Division lead, now fighting for bye.
3. NFC West - Seattle (8-4, 6-3, 3-1)
4. NFC South - Dallas (8-4, 5-3, 2-3) - hottest team in NFC but still playing WC weekend.

Wild Card (overall, conference)

5. IN - NY Giants (6-6, 5-3) - 4 straight losses, but holding on.
Key Games - @Car(wk14), vPhi(wk15)
H2H Tiebreakers - Atl, Phi
6. IN - Philadelphia (6-6, 5-3) - nice win over Carolina to sneak into 6th spot(for now).
Key Games - @NYG(wk15), @Dal(wk16), vAtl(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - GB, SF
7. OUT - Atlanta (6-6, 4-4)
Key Games - vDal(wk15), vCar(wk16), @Phi(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - none
8. OUT - Carolina (6-6, 4-5)
Key Games - vNYG(wk14), @Atl(wk16), @NO(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - Stl
9. OUT - Minnesota (5-7, 5-4) - clinging to hopes with NFC record and Car H2H.
Key Games - vStl(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - Car

St. Louis and San Fran are off the radar until they get to .500. Green Bay is out, now they can win to get a worse draft pick.

Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)...

• Tampa Bay over Atlanta - #1 game we need this week
  
• Carolina over NY Giants - We need to catch the Giants this week, then Carolina after that.
  
• Washington over Philadelphia
  
• New Orleans over Dallas
  
• Chicago over St. Louis
  
• Green Bay over San Fran

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 12)

Since my last Playoff recap the Vikings have fallen to the fringe of the playoff radar. My rule before was that you had to be .500 to get consideration, but I'm changing the rules because I think the Vikings still have a shot (my Kool Aid gets stronger with each passing week).

Current Playoff Scenarios (records in () are overall, conference, divisional)

NFC East - NY Giants (6-4, 5-2, 3-0) - NYG has gone 1-2 in the last 3 weeks and are tied with Dallas, but I think the Giants are safe due to their divisional and conferenc records. They are @ Tenn this week before the Cowboys come to town for the game that could give them yet another tie breaker over Dallas.
NFC North - Chicago (9-1, 7-0, 3-0) - The Bears are only playing for homefield throughout and with a 3 game lead over anybody in the NFC they should clinch that sooner rather than later.
NFC South - Carolina (6-4, 4-3, 3-1) - The Panthers passed Atlanta and New Orleans in the last 3 weeks to hold a slight lead for division champs. They are tied with the Saints at 6-4, but hold the head to head, at least until they meet in the Superdome in week 17.
NFC West - Seattle (6-4, 5-3, 3-1) - The Panthers seemed to clinch when they beat St. Louis for the 2nd time in week 10, but lost a bad game to SanFran in week 11. Fortunately for them St. Louis has fallen off the map with 5 straight losses.

Wild Card (overall and NFC record)

3 weeks ago the WC teams were Atlanta and Minnesota, they have both lost 3 straight and are fighting for their playoff lives. I also mentioned that there is always one team to come out of no where and make a run at the WC, this year's team appears to be San Fran. They certainly were not on anybody's radar 3 weeks ago and at 5-5 they are in the mix. Here is the current list of teams fighting to get in.

IN - New Orleans (6-4, 5-1) - NFC record of 5-1 gives them the edge over the Cowboys. The Saints have a tough remaining schedule including their next 3 vs. teams fighting for NFC playoffs. Their next 3 games may determine their fate. Key games @Atl(wk12), vSF(wk13), @Dal(wk14). H2H Tiebreakers Philly
IN - Dallas (6-4, 3-3) - Their recent win over Indy solidified them as a legit NFL team but really didn't boost their NFC resume all that much. Ultimately they are 3-3 in the NFC and only 1-3 in their own division. Tie breakers are not currently in their favor so they must have a 1 game lead over somebody to make the playoffs. Key games @NYG(wk13) vNO(wk14). H2H Tiebreakers Car

OUT - Philadelphia (5-5, 4-3) - Lost 3 of last 4 to fall out of playoffs. This team may head south in a hurry with McNabb out for the season, a trip tin Indianapolis this week and 4 road games in next 6 weeks. Key games vCar(wk13). H2H Tiebreaker - GB, SF
OUT - SanFrancisco (5-5, 4-3) - Look out, here come the new and improved Niners. After getting pummeled by the Bears they have won 3 straight. Some key games in the next 3 weeks put them in a similar boat as New Orleans. Win or play the last 3 for fun or draft position. @Stl(wk12), @NO(wk13), vGB(wk14). H2H Tiebreaker - Min
OUT - Atlanta (5-5, 3-3) - Vick surges, Falcons are in; Vick struggles, Falcons are out. It has been that simple through 10 weeks. So would the real Vick please stand up. After this week's game with NO, Atl can make up some ground vs. Was and TB or they can get back in the Brady Quinn sweepstakes. Key games vNO(wk12). H2H Tiebreaker - none
OUT - Minnnesota (4-6, 4-3) - 4 straight losses have made things very dicey for MN. But they remain on the list because of their tie breakers. They could have really solidified their playoff spot by beating SF in an ugly game and by beating GB at home, but they didn't and they sit at the bottom of teams with a shot. 5-1 to finish the season isn't unreasonable and with tie-breakers 9-7 MIGHT be enough, but ultimately they'll need some help. Key games all of them. H2H Tiebreaker - Car, Sea

Others...
Green Bay (4-6, 3-4) - with 3-4 conference record and no significant H2H wins outside of their division they'll have to go 6-0 and get some help.
St. Louis (4-6, 3-4) - same boat as Green Bay but they do have 4 of 6 remaining games at home.

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 9)

Alright - it is never to early to start looking at playoff scenarios. Since I only care about 1 team and they are in the NFC there will be little to no talk about AFC scenarios. The rule is that you either have to be .500 or close to .500 and a playoff team from last year to warrant any consideration. Here we go...


The Basics (for all of you girls, soccer fans and American males who live under rocks)

• There are 4 Divisions in the NFC and 16 teams (4 in each division for the math challenged).
• 6 teams make the playoffs
• The 4 division winners + the 2 remaining teams with the best records regardless of what division they come from.
• The Division winners with the best records get a bye.
• Basic tiebreakers are Overall record, Head 2 Head (if applicable) then NFC record.
  
• and that should cover the basics, without getting into tie breaker scenarios.

Current Playoff Scenarios (records in () are overall, NFC, divisional)

NFC East - NY Giants (5-2, 5-1, 3-0) - currently hold a 1 game lead over Dallas and Philly, but have beaten both of them on the road already. As it stands the Giants have put themselves in pefect position but there is a lot of season left and this is a tight division. Upcoming key game is home to Chicago in Week 10.
NFC North - Chicago (7-0, 6-0, 3-0) - 3 game lead over 2nd place MN is nearly a lock to win the division already. The Bears are really playing for homefield advantage throughout. Key game is @NYG in Week 10
NFC South - New Orleans (5-2, 4-1, 2-1) - the surprise team of the NFC is tied with Atlanta but the Saints beat the Falcons earlier to maintaint the lead. This division is also very tight as the Saints, Falcons and Panthers all have a shot to win this one.
NFC West - Seattle (4-3, 4-2, 2-0) - The defending NFC Champ has lost 2 in a row but has won @St. Louis who they are tied with for the division lead. Key game is STL in Week 10.

Wild Card (overall and NFC record)

IN - Atlanta (5-2, 3-2) - Overall record of 5-2 puts them in the WC drivers seat, but 3-2 NFC record needs some work or tie-breakers will not be pleasant to the dirty birds. H2H Tiebreaker - none
IN - Minnesota (4-3, 4-1) - This begins the run of 4-3 teams. MN would currently be the last WC team based on their 4-1 NFC record. Next 4 games are all very winnable games @SF, GB, @Mia, AZ. H2H Tiebreaker - Car, Sea

OUT - St. Louis (4-3, 3-2) - 2 game losing streak has currently put them looking up at the playoff teams. With KC, Sea, Car as upcoming games the Rams are in danger of losing 5 straight and falling off this list. Key games are @ Sea Wk10 and @ Car Wk11. H2H Tiebreaker - none
OUT - Dallas (4-3, 2-2) - The Cowboys had a big win @ Carolina this week to stay in the thick of things. Like MN, Dallas has a handful of "easier" games in the coming weeks to strengthen their playoff resume. H2H Tiebreaker - Car
OUT - Philadelphia (4-4, 3-3) - Would the real Philly team please stand up? The Eagles looked like a SuperBowl contender after their 4-1 start, but 3 straight losses have turned their playoff plans into hopes. They have their bye week to figure things out and for their fans hopefully will return to their form of the first 5 weeks. H2H Tiebreaker - none
OUT - Carolina (4-4, 2-3) - The Panthers have been very "Eagle-like" this season starting 0-2, 4-0, then 0-2. 4-4 is OK but what really hurts the Panthers is that they have lost any H2H tiebreakers with MN and Dal. H2H Tiebreaker - none

One team always waits until about this time of year then rattles off a bunch of wins to get their name in the Wild Card scenarios (see Washington and Minnesota from 2005). Green Bay looks to be the only team in that category this year. Their next 4 games will either put them out or make them a team to recon with. My vote is that it will put them closer to the Brady Quinn sweepstakes than it will to Wild Card weekend. They play @Buf, @MN, NE, @Sea.

So that basically leaves us with 10 teams fighting for 6 spots. That sounds good for MN, but when you say that really you have 6 teams fighting for 2 WC spots that makes it sound a bit more daunting. This week is big for the Vikings. SanFran will not be in a tie breaker scenario with MN so the H2H is meaningless but pusing their NFC record to 5-1 would be exactly what they need to maintain their WC hold.