NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 13)

What a difference a week makes huh? Last week the Vikes were sitting as the 10th best team in the league and facing what seemed to be an insurmountable hill to get into the post season. Well, things fell our way this week, we took care of business (for the first time in November) and we now sit 1 game out of the playoffs. Here is how it all breaks down and at the bottom will be a list of teams we are chearing for this week.

Current Divisional Leaders (records in () are overall, conference, divisional)

1. NFC North - Chicago (9-2, 7-0, 3-0) - The Bears lost, but to an AFC team so it was ultimately meaningless as they still hold a 2 game lead for home field and conference record probably won't be matched so it is basically a 3 game lead. I don't see that kind of collapse in this Bear team, especially with their remaining schedule.
2. NFC South - New Orleans (7-4, 6-1, 4-1) - New Orleans is the surprise team of this year. With a home game vs. SanFran this week they look to stay close to the Bears in case they do slip just a bit.
3. NFC West - Seattle (7-4, 6-3, 3-1) - Survived a scare through 3 qtrs on Monday night, but this team is 0nly getting stronger as we get into December. Essentially a 3 game lead on the division makes this team almost as safe as Chicago.
4. NFC East - Dallas (7-4, 4-3, 1-3) - The Giants are fading and the Cowboys are surging with Romo under center and TO dropping passes. Still a weak divisional record leaves the door open for NYG, but they are up for now and have an oportunity to widen the gap with a game at New York this week.

Wild Card (overall, NFC record)

Things tightened this week for wild card hopefuls. Philly, SanFran, Atlanta all dropped while MN and STL gained ground making in more of a cluster as we head into December.

5. IN - NY Giants (6-5, 5-2) - 3 straight losses has bumped the Giants from an NFC contender to just another mediocre NFC team. Their next 3 weeks will tell us a LOT as they take on 3 other playofff contenders.
Key games Dal(wk13), @Car(wk14), vPhi(wk15). H2H Tiebreakers Atl, Dal, Phi
6. IN -Carolina (6-5, 4-4) - This is the team Vikings fans wanted to see on the WC list not a Divisional leader. Carolina has few H2H tiebreakers and most importantly lost to MN. And they finish their season with 2 road divisional games. Carolina is holding on but just barely.
Key games @Phi(wk13) vNYG(wk14) @Atl(wk 16) @NO(wk17). H2H Tiebreakers Stl

7. OUT - Minnnesota (5-6, 5-3) - Back in the win column and some help throughout the NFC has put MN 1 game out of the WC. As I've always stated we have solid tie breakers but a 4-1 finish is still likely what they'll need to extend their season. This week vs. the Bears would be a HUGE win but we can recover from a loss, it just makes things a bit harder.
Key games @Chi(wk13) (wk16) vSTL(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - Car, Sea
8. OUT - Philadelphia (5-6, 4-3) - The Eagles still have life but it is more vegetative without McNabb. With 4 of their remaining games vs. playoff contenders I think we need to hope for 1 or 2 key upsets that will help MN without letting Philly sneak in to a WC spot.
Key games vCar(wk13) @NYG(wk15) @Dal(wk16) vAtl(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - GB, SF
9. OUT - SanFrancisco (5-6, 4-3) - I think SF edges out Stl because of better divisional record, but sitting 9th or 10th is essentially the same thing. Trips to Seattle and to Denver likely will doom the improved 49ers.
Key Games @NO(wk13), vGB(wk14) @Sea(wk15). H2H Tiebreaker - Min
10. St. Louis (5-6, 4-4) - Leapfrogged Atlanta, but still looking up at too many teams. The Rams have a few easier games left on their schedule so they'll probably move higher on the list before they move down. Week 17 in Minnesota might determine the playoff lives of those teams.
Key games vChi(wk14) @MN(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - GB
11. OUT - Atlanta (5-6, 3-4) - The frustration mounts and the freefall continues for the Falcons. Next 2 weeks are winnable but on the road so that may be a lot to overcome for this struggling team.
Key games vDal(wk15) vCar(wk16) @Phi(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - none

Others...
Green Bay (4-7, 3-5) - Going 5-0 to finish the year might not be enough considering they have no H2H tiebreakers. Time to start planning for post Favre in paint thinner territory.

Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)...

• Philadelphia over Carolina - I don't think Philly will catch us and we need Carolina to lose 1 more game than MN in the next 5 weeks
  
• New Orleans over SanFran - we can't catch NO, SF has H2H over us and we need NO to maintain Divisional lead over Car
• Dallas over NYGiants - we can't catch Dal, bring NYG back to pack so we can land that 1st WC spot and breath easier over the last couple weeks
• Arizona over St. Louis - get Stl out of the picture so they have nothing to play for in wk 17
• Washington over Atlanta - also get Atl out of the picture

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 9)

Alright - it is never to early to start looking at playoff scenarios. Since I only care about 1 team and they are in the NFC there will be little to no talk about AFC scenarios. The rule is that you either have to be .500 or close to .500 and a playoff team from last year to warrant any consideration. Here we go...


The Basics (for all of you girls, soccer fans and American males who live under rocks)

• There are 4 Divisions in the NFC and 16 teams (4 in each division for the math challenged).
• 6 teams make the playoffs
• The 4 division winners + the 2 remaining teams with the best records regardless of what division they come from.
• The Division winners with the best records get a bye.
• Basic tiebreakers are Overall record, Head 2 Head (if applicable) then NFC record.
  
• and that should cover the basics, without getting into tie breaker scenarios.

Current Playoff Scenarios (records in () are overall, NFC, divisional)

NFC East - NY Giants (5-2, 5-1, 3-0) - currently hold a 1 game lead over Dallas and Philly, but have beaten both of them on the road already. As it stands the Giants have put themselves in pefect position but there is a lot of season left and this is a tight division. Upcoming key game is home to Chicago in Week 10.
NFC North - Chicago (7-0, 6-0, 3-0) - 3 game lead over 2nd place MN is nearly a lock to win the division already. The Bears are really playing for homefield advantage throughout. Key game is @NYG in Week 10
NFC South - New Orleans (5-2, 4-1, 2-1) - the surprise team of the NFC is tied with Atlanta but the Saints beat the Falcons earlier to maintaint the lead. This division is also very tight as the Saints, Falcons and Panthers all have a shot to win this one.
NFC West - Seattle (4-3, 4-2, 2-0) - The defending NFC Champ has lost 2 in a row but has won @St. Louis who they are tied with for the division lead. Key game is STL in Week 10.

Wild Card (overall and NFC record)

IN - Atlanta (5-2, 3-2) - Overall record of 5-2 puts them in the WC drivers seat, but 3-2 NFC record needs some work or tie-breakers will not be pleasant to the dirty birds. H2H Tiebreaker - none
IN - Minnesota (4-3, 4-1) - This begins the run of 4-3 teams. MN would currently be the last WC team based on their 4-1 NFC record. Next 4 games are all very winnable games @SF, GB, @Mia, AZ. H2H Tiebreaker - Car, Sea

OUT - St. Louis (4-3, 3-2) - 2 game losing streak has currently put them looking up at the playoff teams. With KC, Sea, Car as upcoming games the Rams are in danger of losing 5 straight and falling off this list. Key games are @ Sea Wk10 and @ Car Wk11. H2H Tiebreaker - none
OUT - Dallas (4-3, 2-2) - The Cowboys had a big win @ Carolina this week to stay in the thick of things. Like MN, Dallas has a handful of "easier" games in the coming weeks to strengthen their playoff resume. H2H Tiebreaker - Car
OUT - Philadelphia (4-4, 3-3) - Would the real Philly team please stand up? The Eagles looked like a SuperBowl contender after their 4-1 start, but 3 straight losses have turned their playoff plans into hopes. They have their bye week to figure things out and for their fans hopefully will return to their form of the first 5 weeks. H2H Tiebreaker - none
OUT - Carolina (4-4, 2-3) - The Panthers have been very "Eagle-like" this season starting 0-2, 4-0, then 0-2. 4-4 is OK but what really hurts the Panthers is that they have lost any H2H tiebreakers with MN and Dal. H2H Tiebreaker - none

One team always waits until about this time of year then rattles off a bunch of wins to get their name in the Wild Card scenarios (see Washington and Minnesota from 2005). Green Bay looks to be the only team in that category this year. Their next 4 games will either put them out or make them a team to recon with. My vote is that it will put them closer to the Brady Quinn sweepstakes than it will to Wild Card weekend. They play @Buf, @MN, NE, @Sea.

So that basically leaves us with 10 teams fighting for 6 spots. That sounds good for MN, but when you say that really you have 6 teams fighting for 2 WC spots that makes it sound a bit more daunting. This week is big for the Vikings. SanFran will not be in a tie breaker scenario with MN so the H2H is meaningless but pusing their NFC record to 5-1 would be exactly what they need to maintain their WC hold.