Vikings v Cowboys Recap

This game was relatively close and the Vikings even lead at halftime by a touchdown, but did anybody really feel like we were in this game? I know that lets just say that FG isn't blocked but instead it goes in. That is the 10 point swing we needed. But it was and it didn't so we lost.

I think that we are fantastic on the first drive of games. After allowing Dallas to score on their opening drive we put together an 11 play, 69 yard drive for a TD that ties the game. WOW. So many things with this drive that had me excited.

• We scored a red zone touchdown.
• We put together an 11 play drive that didn't stall.
• Jackson starts out 2/2, has a 6 yard scramble and looks confident behind center.
• Childress shows some moxy and converts a 4th and 1.

All in all this was a good start. BUT, that was the end of our offense for the day.

• That 1st drive of the game accounted for 35.2% of our offense for the game.
  
• 100% of our offense scoring occurred on that first drive.
• We crossed the 50 twice for the remainder of the game.
• Jackson went 4/16 passing the rest of the game.
  
• The offense had 8 more drives that ended in 3 plays or less.

Quick grades...

Offense (D+) - the passing game was absolutely terrible. Dallas was more committed to stopping the run than Chicago was a week ago. And to counter that we had no passing plays to keep them honest. I'm not talking about deep routes to move them back. Why can't we spred them from sideline to sideline? Why can't we have quick hitting slants and curls that are easy reads for Jackson? Why can't we send guys out and have safe check downs to the TE or RB? None of this occurred. The running game doesn't stand a chance if we can't complete more than 6 passes for the entire game.

Defense (B+) - this may have been their best game of the season. The defense equaled the offense in scoring and really allowed the Cowboys to put together 2 drives all day. Those 2 drives accounted for 38% of their total yards. The rest of their 9 drives averaged 26 yards. We also forced 2 fumbles and a missed FG. All in all that is a pretty good day for a defense. The Cowboy offense has been very good all year. They are currently #2 overall in points per game and yards per game. Holding a home team to 10 points fewer than their season average, is a feat.

Speical Teams (F) - I usually don't grade the special teams but they were really bad all game. Blocked FG for a touchdown and consistently starting drives inside the 20 (6 of 12 possessions), including 3 inside the 10. Our offense needs help from the defense and special teams. This offense is not capable of sustaining drives of 80 yards or more so we basically had a chance for 6 points on only half of our offensive possessions.

All in all this game wasn't the end of the world. We played well at times and if this offense could get to a level of competence we might actually win enough games to play Dallas again.

More to come on this offense in my next post...

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 15)

Vikings win but we don't get much help from the rest of the league. There is still time and there is still reason for optimism. 6-4 NFC record is still very solid and guarantee of 2 teams ahead of us losing this week.

Division Leaders

1. NFC North - Chicago (11-2, 9-0, 4-0) - clinched 1st round bye
2. NFC South - New Orleans (9-4, 8-1, 4-1) - maintains 2 game Division lead, helped bye resume by destroying Dallas.
3. NFC West - Seattle (8-5, 6-4, 3-2)- lucky to be in terrible division
4. NFC South - Dallas (8-5, 5-4, 2-3) - lost to NEW hottest team in NFC, holding on to division lead

Wild Card (overall, conference)

5. IN - NY Giants (7-6, 6-3) - nice win over Carolina, now home vs. Philly is big test.
6. IN - Philadelphia (7-6, -63) - battle with NYG for team to maintain WC position.
7. OUT - Atlanta (7-6, 5-4) - How 'bout them Cowboys!!
8. OUT - Minnesota (6-7, 6-4) - didn't get needed help in wk 14, this week should be better.
9. OUT - Carolina (6-7, 4-6)

St. Louis and San Fran are off the radar until they get to .500. Green Bay is out, now they can win to get a worse draft pick.

Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)...

• Dallas over Atlanta - CHECK
  
• Phildelphia over NY Giants - we need both to lose, but I think Philly will lose next week so beat the vaGiants.
  
• Pittsburgh over Carolina - not a huge deal but we can't let Carolina get back ahead of us.
  

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 14)

The roller coaster continues and Vikings fans are still hanging to playoff hopes (or nightmares) by a thread. Last week I posted what we needed to happen in 6 NFC playoff related games. 5 of those 6 happened as we need them, which would have been great (if only we would have won). So ultimately it just prolonged the inevitable. Here are where things stand...

Division Leaders

1. NFC North - Chicago (10-2, 8-0, 4-0)
2. NFC South - New Orleans (8-4, 7-1, 4-1) - now a 2 game Division lead, now fighting for bye.
3. NFC West - Seattle (8-4, 6-3, 3-1)
4. NFC South - Dallas (8-4, 5-3, 2-3) - hottest team in NFC but still playing WC weekend.

Wild Card (overall, conference)

5. IN - NY Giants (6-6, 5-3) - 4 straight losses, but holding on.
Key Games - @Car(wk14), vPhi(wk15)
H2H Tiebreakers - Atl, Phi
6. IN - Philadelphia (6-6, 5-3) - nice win over Carolina to sneak into 6th spot(for now).
Key Games - @NYG(wk15), @Dal(wk16), vAtl(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - GB, SF
7. OUT - Atlanta (6-6, 4-4)
Key Games - vDal(wk15), vCar(wk16), @Phi(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - none
8. OUT - Carolina (6-6, 4-5)
Key Games - vNYG(wk14), @Atl(wk16), @NO(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - Stl
9. OUT - Minnesota (5-7, 5-4) - clinging to hopes with NFC record and Car H2H.
Key Games - vStl(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - Car

St. Louis and San Fran are off the radar until they get to .500. Green Bay is out, now they can win to get a worse draft pick.

Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)...

• Tampa Bay over Atlanta - #1 game we need this week
  
• Carolina over NY Giants - We need to catch the Giants this week, then Carolina after that.
  
• Washington over Philadelphia
  
• New Orleans over Dallas
  
• Chicago over St. Louis
  
• Green Bay over San Fran

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 13)

What a difference a week makes huh? Last week the Vikes were sitting as the 10th best team in the league and facing what seemed to be an insurmountable hill to get into the post season. Well, things fell our way this week, we took care of business (for the first time in November) and we now sit 1 game out of the playoffs. Here is how it all breaks down and at the bottom will be a list of teams we are chearing for this week.

Current Divisional Leaders (records in () are overall, conference, divisional)

1. NFC North - Chicago (9-2, 7-0, 3-0) - The Bears lost, but to an AFC team so it was ultimately meaningless as they still hold a 2 game lead for home field and conference record probably won't be matched so it is basically a 3 game lead. I don't see that kind of collapse in this Bear team, especially with their remaining schedule.
2. NFC South - New Orleans (7-4, 6-1, 4-1) - New Orleans is the surprise team of this year. With a home game vs. SanFran this week they look to stay close to the Bears in case they do slip just a bit.
3. NFC West - Seattle (7-4, 6-3, 3-1) - Survived a scare through 3 qtrs on Monday night, but this team is 0nly getting stronger as we get into December. Essentially a 3 game lead on the division makes this team almost as safe as Chicago.
4. NFC East - Dallas (7-4, 4-3, 1-3) - The Giants are fading and the Cowboys are surging with Romo under center and TO dropping passes. Still a weak divisional record leaves the door open for NYG, but they are up for now and have an oportunity to widen the gap with a game at New York this week.

Wild Card (overall, NFC record)

Things tightened this week for wild card hopefuls. Philly, SanFran, Atlanta all dropped while MN and STL gained ground making in more of a cluster as we head into December.

5. IN - NY Giants (6-5, 5-2) - 3 straight losses has bumped the Giants from an NFC contender to just another mediocre NFC team. Their next 3 weeks will tell us a LOT as they take on 3 other playofff contenders.
Key games Dal(wk13), @Car(wk14), vPhi(wk15). H2H Tiebreakers Atl, Dal, Phi
6. IN -Carolina (6-5, 4-4) - This is the team Vikings fans wanted to see on the WC list not a Divisional leader. Carolina has few H2H tiebreakers and most importantly lost to MN. And they finish their season with 2 road divisional games. Carolina is holding on but just barely.
Key games @Phi(wk13) vNYG(wk14) @Atl(wk 16) @NO(wk17). H2H Tiebreakers Stl

7. OUT - Minnnesota (5-6, 5-3) - Back in the win column and some help throughout the NFC has put MN 1 game out of the WC. As I've always stated we have solid tie breakers but a 4-1 finish is still likely what they'll need to extend their season. This week vs. the Bears would be a HUGE win but we can recover from a loss, it just makes things a bit harder.
Key games @Chi(wk13) (wk16) vSTL(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - Car, Sea
8. OUT - Philadelphia (5-6, 4-3) - The Eagles still have life but it is more vegetative without McNabb. With 4 of their remaining games vs. playoff contenders I think we need to hope for 1 or 2 key upsets that will help MN without letting Philly sneak in to a WC spot.
Key games vCar(wk13) @NYG(wk15) @Dal(wk16) vAtl(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - GB, SF
9. OUT - SanFrancisco (5-6, 4-3) - I think SF edges out Stl because of better divisional record, but sitting 9th or 10th is essentially the same thing. Trips to Seattle and to Denver likely will doom the improved 49ers.
Key Games @NO(wk13), vGB(wk14) @Sea(wk15). H2H Tiebreaker - Min
10. St. Louis (5-6, 4-4) - Leapfrogged Atlanta, but still looking up at too many teams. The Rams have a few easier games left on their schedule so they'll probably move higher on the list before they move down. Week 17 in Minnesota might determine the playoff lives of those teams.
Key games vChi(wk14) @MN(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - GB
11. OUT - Atlanta (5-6, 3-4) - The frustration mounts and the freefall continues for the Falcons. Next 2 weeks are winnable but on the road so that may be a lot to overcome for this struggling team.
Key games vDal(wk15) vCar(wk16) @Phi(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - none

Others...
Green Bay (4-7, 3-5) - Going 5-0 to finish the year might not be enough considering they have no H2H tiebreakers. Time to start planning for post Favre in paint thinner territory.

Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)...

• Philadelphia over Carolina - I don't think Philly will catch us and we need Carolina to lose 1 more game than MN in the next 5 weeks
  
• New Orleans over SanFran - we can't catch NO, SF has H2H over us and we need NO to maintain Divisional lead over Car
• Dallas over NYGiants - we can't catch Dal, bring NYG back to pack so we can land that 1st WC spot and breath easier over the last couple weeks
• Arizona over St. Louis - get Stl out of the picture so they have nothing to play for in wk 17
• Washington over Atlanta - also get Atl out of the picture

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 12)

Since my last Playoff recap the Vikings have fallen to the fringe of the playoff radar. My rule before was that you had to be .500 to get consideration, but I'm changing the rules because I think the Vikings still have a shot (my Kool Aid gets stronger with each passing week).

Current Playoff Scenarios (records in () are overall, conference, divisional)

NFC East - NY Giants (6-4, 5-2, 3-0) - NYG has gone 1-2 in the last 3 weeks and are tied with Dallas, but I think the Giants are safe due to their divisional and conferenc records. They are @ Tenn this week before the Cowboys come to town for the game that could give them yet another tie breaker over Dallas.
NFC North - Chicago (9-1, 7-0, 3-0) - The Bears are only playing for homefield throughout and with a 3 game lead over anybody in the NFC they should clinch that sooner rather than later.
NFC South - Carolina (6-4, 4-3, 3-1) - The Panthers passed Atlanta and New Orleans in the last 3 weeks to hold a slight lead for division champs. They are tied with the Saints at 6-4, but hold the head to head, at least until they meet in the Superdome in week 17.
NFC West - Seattle (6-4, 5-3, 3-1) - The Panthers seemed to clinch when they beat St. Louis for the 2nd time in week 10, but lost a bad game to SanFran in week 11. Fortunately for them St. Louis has fallen off the map with 5 straight losses.

Wild Card (overall and NFC record)

3 weeks ago the WC teams were Atlanta and Minnesota, they have both lost 3 straight and are fighting for their playoff lives. I also mentioned that there is always one team to come out of no where and make a run at the WC, this year's team appears to be San Fran. They certainly were not on anybody's radar 3 weeks ago and at 5-5 they are in the mix. Here is the current list of teams fighting to get in.

IN - New Orleans (6-4, 5-1) - NFC record of 5-1 gives them the edge over the Cowboys. The Saints have a tough remaining schedule including their next 3 vs. teams fighting for NFC playoffs. Their next 3 games may determine their fate. Key games @Atl(wk12), vSF(wk13), @Dal(wk14). H2H Tiebreakers Philly
IN - Dallas (6-4, 3-3) - Their recent win over Indy solidified them as a legit NFL team but really didn't boost their NFC resume all that much. Ultimately they are 3-3 in the NFC and only 1-3 in their own division. Tie breakers are not currently in their favor so they must have a 1 game lead over somebody to make the playoffs. Key games @NYG(wk13) vNO(wk14). H2H Tiebreakers Car

OUT - Philadelphia (5-5, 4-3) - Lost 3 of last 4 to fall out of playoffs. This team may head south in a hurry with McNabb out for the season, a trip tin Indianapolis this week and 4 road games in next 6 weeks. Key games vCar(wk13). H2H Tiebreaker - GB, SF
OUT - SanFrancisco (5-5, 4-3) - Look out, here come the new and improved Niners. After getting pummeled by the Bears they have won 3 straight. Some key games in the next 3 weeks put them in a similar boat as New Orleans. Win or play the last 3 for fun or draft position. @Stl(wk12), @NO(wk13), vGB(wk14). H2H Tiebreaker - Min
OUT - Atlanta (5-5, 3-3) - Vick surges, Falcons are in; Vick struggles, Falcons are out. It has been that simple through 10 weeks. So would the real Vick please stand up. After this week's game with NO, Atl can make up some ground vs. Was and TB or they can get back in the Brady Quinn sweepstakes. Key games vNO(wk12). H2H Tiebreaker - none
OUT - Minnnesota (4-6, 4-3) - 4 straight losses have made things very dicey for MN. But they remain on the list because of their tie breakers. They could have really solidified their playoff spot by beating SF in an ugly game and by beating GB at home, but they didn't and they sit at the bottom of teams with a shot. 5-1 to finish the season isn't unreasonable and with tie-breakers 9-7 MIGHT be enough, but ultimately they'll need some help. Key games all of them. H2H Tiebreaker - Car, Sea

Others...
Green Bay (4-6, 3-4) - with 3-4 conference record and no significant H2H wins outside of their division they'll have to go 6-0 and get some help.
St. Louis (4-6, 3-4) - same boat as Green Bay but they do have 4 of 6 remaining games at home.

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 9)

Alright - it is never to early to start looking at playoff scenarios. Since I only care about 1 team and they are in the NFC there will be little to no talk about AFC scenarios. The rule is that you either have to be .500 or close to .500 and a playoff team from last year to warrant any consideration. Here we go...


The Basics (for all of you girls, soccer fans and American males who live under rocks)

• There are 4 Divisions in the NFC and 16 teams (4 in each division for the math challenged).
• 6 teams make the playoffs
• The 4 division winners + the 2 remaining teams with the best records regardless of what division they come from.
• The Division winners with the best records get a bye.
• Basic tiebreakers are Overall record, Head 2 Head (if applicable) then NFC record.
  
• and that should cover the basics, without getting into tie breaker scenarios.

Current Playoff Scenarios (records in () are overall, NFC, divisional)

NFC East - NY Giants (5-2, 5-1, 3-0) - currently hold a 1 game lead over Dallas and Philly, but have beaten both of them on the road already. As it stands the Giants have put themselves in pefect position but there is a lot of season left and this is a tight division. Upcoming key game is home to Chicago in Week 10.
NFC North - Chicago (7-0, 6-0, 3-0) - 3 game lead over 2nd place MN is nearly a lock to win the division already. The Bears are really playing for homefield advantage throughout. Key game is @NYG in Week 10
NFC South - New Orleans (5-2, 4-1, 2-1) - the surprise team of the NFC is tied with Atlanta but the Saints beat the Falcons earlier to maintaint the lead. This division is also very tight as the Saints, Falcons and Panthers all have a shot to win this one.
NFC West - Seattle (4-3, 4-2, 2-0) - The defending NFC Champ has lost 2 in a row but has won @St. Louis who they are tied with for the division lead. Key game is STL in Week 10.

Wild Card (overall and NFC record)

IN - Atlanta (5-2, 3-2) - Overall record of 5-2 puts them in the WC drivers seat, but 3-2 NFC record needs some work or tie-breakers will not be pleasant to the dirty birds. H2H Tiebreaker - none
IN - Minnesota (4-3, 4-1) - This begins the run of 4-3 teams. MN would currently be the last WC team based on their 4-1 NFC record. Next 4 games are all very winnable games @SF, GB, @Mia, AZ. H2H Tiebreaker - Car, Sea

OUT - St. Louis (4-3, 3-2) - 2 game losing streak has currently put them looking up at the playoff teams. With KC, Sea, Car as upcoming games the Rams are in danger of losing 5 straight and falling off this list. Key games are @ Sea Wk10 and @ Car Wk11. H2H Tiebreaker - none
OUT - Dallas (4-3, 2-2) - The Cowboys had a big win @ Carolina this week to stay in the thick of things. Like MN, Dallas has a handful of "easier" games in the coming weeks to strengthen their playoff resume. H2H Tiebreaker - Car
OUT - Philadelphia (4-4, 3-3) - Would the real Philly team please stand up? The Eagles looked like a SuperBowl contender after their 4-1 start, but 3 straight losses have turned their playoff plans into hopes. They have their bye week to figure things out and for their fans hopefully will return to their form of the first 5 weeks. H2H Tiebreaker - none
OUT - Carolina (4-4, 2-3) - The Panthers have been very "Eagle-like" this season starting 0-2, 4-0, then 0-2. 4-4 is OK but what really hurts the Panthers is that they have lost any H2H tiebreakers with MN and Dal. H2H Tiebreaker - none

One team always waits until about this time of year then rattles off a bunch of wins to get their name in the Wild Card scenarios (see Washington and Minnesota from 2005). Green Bay looks to be the only team in that category this year. Their next 4 games will either put them out or make them a team to recon with. My vote is that it will put them closer to the Brady Quinn sweepstakes than it will to Wild Card weekend. They play @Buf, @MN, NE, @Sea.

So that basically leaves us with 10 teams fighting for 6 spots. That sounds good for MN, but when you say that really you have 6 teams fighting for 2 WC spots that makes it sound a bit more daunting. This week is big for the Vikings. SanFran will not be in a tie breaker scenario with MN so the H2H is meaningless but pusing their NFC record to 5-1 would be exactly what they need to maintain their WC hold.