NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 15)

This great blog was sent to me. It calculates each team's percent chance of making the playoffs.

After the 0-34 debacle @Lambeau we actually stood a 3% chance of making the playoffs.
We now sit at an overall chance of 43%

If we go...

3-0 = 100%
2-0-1 = 100%
2-1 = 74.5%
1-1-1 = 55.6%
1-2 = 6%
0-3 = 0%

As a reminder for all of you returning readers from last season. When the records are listed it is (overall, conference, division).

Division Leaders

1. NFC East - Dallas (12-1, 9-0, 4-0)
2. NFC North - Green Bay (11-2, 7-2, 3-1)
3. NFC West - Seattle (9-4, 8-2, 5-1)
4. NFC South - Tampa Bay (8-5, 7-2, 4-0)

Wild Card (overall, conference)

5. IN - NY Giants (9-4, 7-4) - road win @Philly may have clinched the to wild card
Key Remaining Games - Wash(wk15)
H2H Tiebreakers - Det, Chi, Phi, Was (for now),

6. IN - Minnesota (7-6, 5-5) - everything worked for them this week
Key Remaining Games - Chi(wk15), Was(wk16)
H2H Tiebreakers - NYG, Chi(for now)

7. Washington (6-7, 4-5) - head to head over Det and AZ, AND gets to play MN
Key Remaining Games - @NYG(wk15), @Min(wk16)
H2H over Det and Arz

8. Arizona (6-7, 3-6) - plenty of NFC games remaining but they need help
Key Remaining Games - @NO, Atl, Stl
H2H Tiebreakers - Det

9. Detroit (6-7, 4-7) - heartbreaking loss to Dallas, a win would have made things interesting
Key Remaining Games - @GB(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - Chi

10. New Orleans (6-7, 5-4) - 5-4 NFC record gives hope, must win out and hope for miracle
Key Remaining Games - AZ(wk15)
H2H over nobody


Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)

1. Washington over New York Giants - we can beat Wash, but if NYG loses we can catch the 1st wild card spot.
   
2. Arizona @ New Orleans - either way one is eliminated
   
3. San Diego over Detroit - like it matters, nobody thinks the Lions are going to make it
   

Analysis

For really the 3rd week in a row everything worked in our favor. We won and the teams we needed to lose, lost. If we can win the next two home games (Chicago and Washington) that should essentially wrap it up and make the Denver road game meaningless. We are playing well, but not well enough to assume a W.