Who would have thunk?

One month ago I had a handful of scathing posts in my head just ready to be typed. Posts like...

• Why it is time to end the Brad Childress Experiment
• the KAO is seriously the worst offense EVER
• Why it is time to end the Tarvaris Jackson Experiment
• How many games do we have to lose to get a franchise QB in 2008 Draft
• Will we hire Schottenheimer, Cowher or Tim Brewster to lead this team in 2008
• Will the offense be able to cross the 50 with Purple Jesus injured
  
• Why would anybody on this defense stick around to watch another year of playoff D coupled with the worst offense EVER

I think you get the picture. Fortunately I was always too busy with work and gopher blog to ever type those posts.

Flash forward 4 weeks and the Vikings are playing great. The offense is able to move the ball, the defense is dominating and we are fans of the hottest team in the NFC (that doesn't have a star on the helmet). We are riding a 4 game win streak (5 out of 6) and the biggest shocker we are IN THE PLAYOFFS (for now).

Seriously, at 3-6 who actually thought that in week 14 we'd be a wild card team. Let me tell you, I drink the kool-aid pretty hard and after the Green Bay loss I had written off the playoffs completely. Even if I thought they had a little run in them I thought that the missed FG @ Detroit and losing to the Eagles at home would doom their playoff hopes. But I was wrong (first time for everything) and now we can start planning our trips to Seattle for the playoffs!

What exactly has moved us from 2008 Draft watch to Jan of '08 still playing? The run game would be the obvious answer but I think it is also the wrong answer. The run game has been solid since week 1 and we still struggled to a 3-6 start.

1. QB PLAY

I stated in an earlier post that I hadn't seen anything that would give us any indication that Jackson would grow to be a competent NFL QB. But I also wanted him to play out the rest of this season so we'd know for sure. It was a simple 3 step plan. Let him play, evaluate in Jan, then most likely move on to a new QB for 2008. Letting him play out the season was a no brainer. Neither Holcomb or Bollinger gave you any better chance to win than TJax did. What is shocking is the turnaround we have seen.

(Notice the AWESOME photoshop to the right)

Comparing Jackson's first 5 games this year to his most recent 4 looks like this...

	TDs	INTs	Best QB Rating	Record
First 5 games	2	5	75.1	3-2
Last 4 games	4	2	139.2	4-0

In all four of his most recent starts his QB Rating was higher than his best from his first 5. We aren't exactly looking at Marino in his prime here but there is no reason not to be pleased with the improvement he has shown.

For my money the San Francisco game yesterday was the most impressive. The 49ers did all they could do to shut down the running game and make Jackson beat them with his arm. Take away Taylor's 84 yard run and the defensive TD and Jackson still beat them by moving the ball downfield and leading us to 13 points. Again, he won't be winning an MVP trophy based on this game but he did more than just "not lose" for us. On a day when Purple Jesus had a grand total of 0 yards rushing and Taylor has only 17 if you take away just 1 attempt, Jackson combined with the defense to win this game on the road.

2. Coaching and the KAO

This just in, Kirk Herbstreit is reporting that Brad Childress was actually fired 5 weeks ago. This offense has been balanced, making adjustments and creative and for a month now. Who are you and what did you do with the Kick Ass Offense? When comparing the offense of the last 6 games to the offense of the first 7 you get something like this...

• +65 yards per game
• +7 offensive points per game (taking away defensive scores)
• Defensively giving up -20 yds per game and -2 points per game

When the offense gets better, it helps the defense out a little bit and you get a net gain of 85 yards per game and 9 points. And those numbers include the 0-34 game @ Lambeau.

But this really is less about production and more about the offense looking prepared, able to handle defensive adjustments with adjustments of their own and an expansion of the playbook to include more than 7 yard slants or deep balls. We actually throw 12 yard passes and utilize the play-action to get the ball downfield.

So first I was ready to jettison our young QB, and next I was ready to cut ties with Brad the Red Hot Childress Pepper (copyright Eric). But here again Brad finally seems to be showing signs of life. It only took him 23 games into his career to get adjusted and into a coaching groove. I am neither endorsing or demonizing the head coach at this point but at least he has proven that he deserves to stick around.

3. Big Play D

I think this is largely due to an improved offense that doesn't put the defense in bad situations. And most importantly the defense is taking advantage of offensive mistakes. This doesn't take a lot of explanation.

And what comes next?

We have 2 scenarios that I see here.

The We Should Have Seen This Coming Scenario - this is the one we are used to. Vikings do something like win 4 straight to get everything assuming playoffs and maybe a little playoff run. Then they lose 2 straight at home, have to win @Denver to get in, but lose in a snap over the punter's head for a Bronco TD. We've seen this before and it is almost an annual event.

OR...

The Playoff Run to the Super Bowl Scenario - We stay hot, we are a legit team that just took a 1/2 season to get going. We win 3 straight road games in the playoffs and play spoiler to the Patriots in Arizona!!! I'm drinking the Kool-Aid now BABY. Book your hotel rooms now before they are gone! SKOL VIKINGS!!! Woooo-HOOOO!

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 13)

What a difference a week makes huh? Last week the Vikes were sitting as the 10th best team in the league and facing what seemed to be an insurmountable hill to get into the post season. Well, things fell our way this week, we took care of business (for the first time in November) and we now sit 1 game out of the playoffs. Here is how it all breaks down and at the bottom will be a list of teams we are chearing for this week.

Current Divisional Leaders (records in () are overall, conference, divisional)

1. NFC North - Chicago (9-2, 7-0, 3-0) - The Bears lost, but to an AFC team so it was ultimately meaningless as they still hold a 2 game lead for home field and conference record probably won't be matched so it is basically a 3 game lead. I don't see that kind of collapse in this Bear team, especially with their remaining schedule.
2. NFC South - New Orleans (7-4, 6-1, 4-1) - New Orleans is the surprise team of this year. With a home game vs. SanFran this week they look to stay close to the Bears in case they do slip just a bit.
3. NFC West - Seattle (7-4, 6-3, 3-1) - Survived a scare through 3 qtrs on Monday night, but this team is 0nly getting stronger as we get into December. Essentially a 3 game lead on the division makes this team almost as safe as Chicago.
4. NFC East - Dallas (7-4, 4-3, 1-3) - The Giants are fading and the Cowboys are surging with Romo under center and TO dropping passes. Still a weak divisional record leaves the door open for NYG, but they are up for now and have an oportunity to widen the gap with a game at New York this week.

Wild Card (overall, NFC record)

Things tightened this week for wild card hopefuls. Philly, SanFran, Atlanta all dropped while MN and STL gained ground making in more of a cluster as we head into December.

5. IN - NY Giants (6-5, 5-2) - 3 straight losses has bumped the Giants from an NFC contender to just another mediocre NFC team. Their next 3 weeks will tell us a LOT as they take on 3 other playofff contenders.
Key games Dal(wk13), @Car(wk14), vPhi(wk15). H2H Tiebreakers Atl, Dal, Phi
6. IN -Carolina (6-5, 4-4) - This is the team Vikings fans wanted to see on the WC list not a Divisional leader. Carolina has few H2H tiebreakers and most importantly lost to MN. And they finish their season with 2 road divisional games. Carolina is holding on but just barely.
Key games @Phi(wk13) vNYG(wk14) @Atl(wk 16) @NO(wk17). H2H Tiebreakers Stl

7. OUT - Minnnesota (5-6, 5-3) - Back in the win column and some help throughout the NFC has put MN 1 game out of the WC. As I've always stated we have solid tie breakers but a 4-1 finish is still likely what they'll need to extend their season. This week vs. the Bears would be a HUGE win but we can recover from a loss, it just makes things a bit harder.
Key games @Chi(wk13) (wk16) vSTL(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - Car, Sea
8. OUT - Philadelphia (5-6, 4-3) - The Eagles still have life but it is more vegetative without McNabb. With 4 of their remaining games vs. playoff contenders I think we need to hope for 1 or 2 key upsets that will help MN without letting Philly sneak in to a WC spot.
Key games vCar(wk13) @NYG(wk15) @Dal(wk16) vAtl(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - GB, SF
9. OUT - SanFrancisco (5-6, 4-3) - I think SF edges out Stl because of better divisional record, but sitting 9th or 10th is essentially the same thing. Trips to Seattle and to Denver likely will doom the improved 49ers.
Key Games @NO(wk13), vGB(wk14) @Sea(wk15). H2H Tiebreaker - Min
10. St. Louis (5-6, 4-4) - Leapfrogged Atlanta, but still looking up at too many teams. The Rams have a few easier games left on their schedule so they'll probably move higher on the list before they move down. Week 17 in Minnesota might determine the playoff lives of those teams.
Key games vChi(wk14) @MN(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - GB
11. OUT - Atlanta (5-6, 3-4) - The frustration mounts and the freefall continues for the Falcons. Next 2 weeks are winnable but on the road so that may be a lot to overcome for this struggling team.
Key games vDal(wk15) vCar(wk16) @Phi(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - none

Others...
Green Bay (4-7, 3-5) - Going 5-0 to finish the year might not be enough considering they have no H2H tiebreakers. Time to start planning for post Favre in paint thinner territory.

Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)...

• Philadelphia over Carolina - I don't think Philly will catch us and we need Carolina to lose 1 more game than MN in the next 5 weeks
  
• New Orleans over SanFran - we can't catch NO, SF has H2H over us and we need NO to maintain Divisional lead over Car
• Dallas over NYGiants - we can't catch Dal, bring NYG back to pack so we can land that 1st WC spot and breath easier over the last couple weeks
• Arizona over St. Louis - get Stl out of the picture so they have nothing to play for in wk 17
• Washington over Atlanta - also get Atl out of the picture

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 12)

Since my last Playoff recap the Vikings have fallen to the fringe of the playoff radar. My rule before was that you had to be .500 to get consideration, but I'm changing the rules because I think the Vikings still have a shot (my Kool Aid gets stronger with each passing week).

Current Playoff Scenarios (records in () are overall, conference, divisional)

NFC East - NY Giants (6-4, 5-2, 3-0) - NYG has gone 1-2 in the last 3 weeks and are tied with Dallas, but I think the Giants are safe due to their divisional and conferenc records. They are @ Tenn this week before the Cowboys come to town for the game that could give them yet another tie breaker over Dallas.
NFC North - Chicago (9-1, 7-0, 3-0) - The Bears are only playing for homefield throughout and with a 3 game lead over anybody in the NFC they should clinch that sooner rather than later.
NFC South - Carolina (6-4, 4-3, 3-1) - The Panthers passed Atlanta and New Orleans in the last 3 weeks to hold a slight lead for division champs. They are tied with the Saints at 6-4, but hold the head to head, at least until they meet in the Superdome in week 17.
NFC West - Seattle (6-4, 5-3, 3-1) - The Panthers seemed to clinch when they beat St. Louis for the 2nd time in week 10, but lost a bad game to SanFran in week 11. Fortunately for them St. Louis has fallen off the map with 5 straight losses.

Wild Card (overall and NFC record)

3 weeks ago the WC teams were Atlanta and Minnesota, they have both lost 3 straight and are fighting for their playoff lives. I also mentioned that there is always one team to come out of no where and make a run at the WC, this year's team appears to be San Fran. They certainly were not on anybody's radar 3 weeks ago and at 5-5 they are in the mix. Here is the current list of teams fighting to get in.

IN - New Orleans (6-4, 5-1) - NFC record of 5-1 gives them the edge over the Cowboys. The Saints have a tough remaining schedule including their next 3 vs. teams fighting for NFC playoffs. Their next 3 games may determine their fate. Key games @Atl(wk12), vSF(wk13), @Dal(wk14). H2H Tiebreakers Philly
IN - Dallas (6-4, 3-3) - Their recent win over Indy solidified them as a legit NFL team but really didn't boost their NFC resume all that much. Ultimately they are 3-3 in the NFC and only 1-3 in their own division. Tie breakers are not currently in their favor so they must have a 1 game lead over somebody to make the playoffs. Key games @NYG(wk13) vNO(wk14). H2H Tiebreakers Car

OUT - Philadelphia (5-5, 4-3) - Lost 3 of last 4 to fall out of playoffs. This team may head south in a hurry with McNabb out for the season, a trip tin Indianapolis this week and 4 road games in next 6 weeks. Key games vCar(wk13). H2H Tiebreaker - GB, SF
OUT - SanFrancisco (5-5, 4-3) - Look out, here come the new and improved Niners. After getting pummeled by the Bears they have won 3 straight. Some key games in the next 3 weeks put them in a similar boat as New Orleans. Win or play the last 3 for fun or draft position. @Stl(wk12), @NO(wk13), vGB(wk14). H2H Tiebreaker - Min
OUT - Atlanta (5-5, 3-3) - Vick surges, Falcons are in; Vick struggles, Falcons are out. It has been that simple through 10 weeks. So would the real Vick please stand up. After this week's game with NO, Atl can make up some ground vs. Was and TB or they can get back in the Brady Quinn sweepstakes. Key games vNO(wk12). H2H Tiebreaker - none
OUT - Minnnesota (4-6, 4-3) - 4 straight losses have made things very dicey for MN. But they remain on the list because of their tie breakers. They could have really solidified their playoff spot by beating SF in an ugly game and by beating GB at home, but they didn't and they sit at the bottom of teams with a shot. 5-1 to finish the season isn't unreasonable and with tie-breakers 9-7 MIGHT be enough, but ultimately they'll need some help. Key games all of them. H2H Tiebreaker - Car, Sea

Others...
Green Bay (4-6, 3-4) - with 3-4 conference record and no significant H2H wins outside of their division they'll have to go 6-0 and get some help.
St. Louis (4-6, 3-4) - same boat as Green Bay but they do have 4 of 6 remaining games at home.

Vikings v 49ers Kool-Aided Preview

Week 9

Well this week is pretty simple, if you want to make the playoffs, you have to win this game. The Niners are 2-5 and the Vikings need to maintain their stellar NFC record. Like I said, this isn't complicated the Vikings must win or think about whether or not they want to make the playoffs.

The Trenches - The MN defensive line overmatches the SF offensive line. This is a match up that we need to do more than just win, we have to dominate. On the other side of the ball this is a match up we can also win but it is not a sure thing. The Vikings are facing another 3-4 defense this week and it was not a particularly good situation last week vs. New England (that was the last Patriot / 49er comparison). We should be able to handle their 3 down linemen (SHOULD) but the Niner LB corp is pretty solid and we have to do a better job of picking them up on the blitz.

The Pretty Boys - If the OL can give Brad time he should be able to move us downfield. Our passing game should seriously overmatch the San Fran secondary. Chester should have an opportunity to get his legs going again IF our OL can manhandle their defensive front. On the other side, the Niner offensive skill guys are young and improving. But they are still young, make mistakes and they don't have the OL to help them out.

The Ball Hawks - THIS is an interesting match up. Last week the Vikings secondary looked like they were wearing maroon & gold and they were still tired from getting beat by Ohio State. This week could be ugly or they could grab a handful of turnovers.

Keys to the Game

1. Minnesota D-line MUST DOMINATE - Not much to elaborate on here, get to Smith and keep Gore from breaking anything big.
2. Minnesota secondary - has to make the adjustments that got them embarassed on Monday night. Alex Smith is not Tom Brady no matter how much Kool Aid I drink, but Smith is getting better and he can get on a roll if we let him.
   
3. Overcome injuries - Napoleon Harris and Marcus Robinson are out this week. Marcus is a bigger loss than we thought before and usually I wouldn't care about Harris but his speed is necessary to help cover Vernon Davis (assuming he is back from injury). Also Napo was inefective last week and I think he'd come back this week to be productive.

The season would not be lost but this is a must win. The Vikings have a handful of games vs. bad teams in the next month. Losing to Green Bay is a possiblity as divisional games are often competitive, losing at Miami would not hurt as much as losing this week as they are an AFC team and Arizona at home is a dangerous game with Leinart improving and Denny returning to the Dome. All that to say that this is the easiest of the upcoming games and a must win to keep their playoff position.