Let's play a game...

After watching MNF and listening to the long list of Bear QBs since the Jim McMahon days it got me thinking a little bit. It seems that the Vikings usually get to face a different Bear QB every time they play. While this isn't totally true it is pretty close.

• In the last 12 meetings there have been 7 different starting QBs for the Bears.
  
• 4 of the last 6 seasons have had different starters in each of the team's two meetings.

So with that in mind lets play a little game. I'll pick a starter and you match him to the stats...

1. Jim Miller - 2002
2. Chris Chandler - 2002
3. Kordell Stewart - 2003
4. Rex Grossman - 2003 (NFL debut)
5. Chad Hutchinson - 2004
6. Kyle Orton - 2005
7. Rex Grossman - bonus Sexi!
8. Brian Griese - 2007

a. 117 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
b. 381 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
c. 176 yds, 1 INT
d. 137 yds, 1 TD
e. 157 yds
f. 213 yds, 3 TD
g. 297 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
h. 34 yds, 3 INT!

I'd type the answers upside down but then the blood rushed to my head and it didn't really do any good.

Answers:
1-g
2-c
3-d
4-e
5-f
6-a
7-h
8-b

Vikings v Bears Kool-Aided Preview (wk 15)

Well, I haven't given a preview since week 6 for the first Bears game. And it is probably good because we tend to lose the games I preview. But I am fearless and the Vikings are virtually unbeatable so here I come with a minor preview.

On paper this one could get ugly in the home team's favor. The Bears are injured all over, haven't played well in weeks, are searching for anybody to be a competent QB and the seem to be a grumpy group right about now.

But Beware the Bear? I don't think so. They have lost 3 of their last 4. A Bears fan might try to convince you they were all close against potential playoff teams and they beat Denver. But these games were not as close as they appear...

• @Seattle - late FG by Chicago made this closer than it really was. But this was one of the best games for Benson (89 yds, 1 TD) and Grossman (266 yds, 65%) this season.
• Denver - nice OT win at home, but this was a Hester special. He is special but the 22 guys who play offense and defense did not play well enough to win this game.
  
• NY Giants - this was their best game in recent memory (although it was a loss). It took 4th quarter collapse to give this one away. 5 penalties in the 4th, a couple replay calls in the vaGiants favor and a general inability to stop the Manning led Giants ended this one for the Bearsies.
• @Washington - another close but not really game. A FG with 30 seconds made this into a 1 possession game.

I think this Bear is in hibernation.

Two things scare me about this game...

1. Kyle Orton - Dan Marino he is not, but if you are reading this you too have see a Vikings defense make a non-starter QB look like he is All Pro. Orton does have a nice arm but he hasn't taken a snap since 2005. And even then he had 9 TDs to 13 INTs. He shouldn't scare anybody, there is a reason that he has been stuck behind Grossman and Griese for 2 years. But he does, only because I've seen it before.

The Bears shouldn't have a run game that accumulates more than 50 yards all day. I'm guessing the Lovie and company have gameplanned to spread us out and throw on us from the opening snap. Hell, I wouldn't be shocked to see a no huddle. Out of character? Yes. The right gameplan to beat the Vikings? Yes. Orton can throw, but we have to adjust to him, get pressure on him and make him make mistakes.

2. Devin Hester - my most hated player in football. He is amazing and perfectly capable of beating the Vikings. In recent memory the Bears have done all they can to prove that a special team's TD doesn't actually help win you games. In the most recent Super Bowl I was convinced that if the Bears got a Hester TD they would beat the Colts. I was wrong. In week 6 when Hester took back a punt to give Chicago the 0-7 lead I thought it was over. Again, I was wrong. I don't want to take that chance again. I don't care if kicking the ball out of bounds gives them a 20 yard bonus in field position. If their offense, which will be one dimensional can go down the field on a consistent basis then we don't deserve to win. But that is better than giving Hester 6 points.

Fearless Prediction

This is tough. On the one hand I think right now these teams are going in opposite directions. The Bears haven't been very good on the road and last meeting was dominated everywhere except the final 3 min and final score (31-17 with 3 min to go before a minor collapse by the Vikes). And in addition to that the Vikings have been dominant winning 3 straight by 20+. On the other hand this is a division game that has the makings of a tight game as both defenses have been known to play well.

I expect the Bears to come out throwing on offense and putting 10 guys on the box to stop Purple Jesus on defense. As is often the case that formula isn't good for the Vikes. So can Jackson continue to play well when teams are forcing him to beat them. Can PJ get into that second level and run all over the Bear D? And if we know they are going to pass can we slow it down? Can we make them go in short chunks and then pounce when Orton makes a mistake?

I can't pick against the Vikes but this one is far from a slam dunk. The Vikings win and increase their dominance over the Bears as they move the franchise series to 50-42-2.

Minnesota - 27
Chicago - 23

Vikings v Bears Recap

"This ain't college, Rook!" That was what Peanut Tillman had to say to Adrian Peterson (the MN version) early in the 1st quarter. Good call, Peanut!

Really this game came down to the following equation...

Purple Jesus > Devin Hester

Peterson Highlights

The rest of the parties involved were just average.

OK, so maybe we need a little better analysis than that, but if you are just skimming the blog, that is all you need to know. We'll start with the grades....

QB (B+) - this was TJax best game as a pro. The sad part his he didn't top 150 yards and completed fewer than 40% of his passes. With that said he made 1 huge play to Williamson to give us a TD that nobody was counting on. He also did not turn the ball over, which goes a LONG way towards winning a ball game. And his numbers would be much better were it not for some dropped passes by Sydney. But he also missed a few guys including Richardson on what would have been a huge play (it not a TD) late in the 2nd qtr. Overall a solid game but nothing to get excited about.

RB (A+) - not much needs to be said about what Purple Jesus did on the field. A few viking records were broken and all in all he pretty much carried the entire team to the W. It should also be noted that Taylor had a decent game as well. 83 yards isn't anything special but he got stronger as the game went on averaging 3.3/carry through 3 qtrs and finishing the 4th with 4.3 including 2 runs of 12 or more.

WR (C+) - Williamson's TD is the lone bright spot today. He ran a good route, got behind the coverage and most importantly caught the ball. But apparently South Carolina receivers have trouble catching NFL passes as Sydney Rice dropped a few balls that would have helped sustain drives. TJax put the ball where it had to be a number of times and it was just plain dropped, that can't happen.

OL (B+) - Only gave up 1 sack and this was their best game of the year. But watching the game I felt like PJ was making the OL look good, not the other way around.

Overall Offense (B+) - hard to criticize 31 offensive points (final 3 points was all special teams), we may not see that again this season. I think we are lacking some balance when 68% of our plays were running plays, but you have to go with what is working. Overall, I can't really complain about anything.

DBs (C-) - They gave up a ton of yards and 3 big plays for TDs. That just can't happen. If we give up 3 passing TDs of 33 yards or more again this year we better hope for 300 yards rushing or we'll lose that game. Brian Griese won't have 380 yards passing again this year (well maybe on Dec. 17) and it is kind of embarrassing that he did yesterday.

LB (A-) - I love this group of linebackers. EJ has been making plays all over the place, Leber is seriously underrated and Greenway is on his way to being a force at this level. The Bears has 9 plays that ended up in negative yardage, 7 of those 9 were made by a Vikings linebacker. Also add 1 forced fumble and 1 interception to the linebackers combined stat line.

DL (B+) - a little more pressure on Griese would have been nice. Ray Edwards probably had the best day of this group with 5 tackles including 1 for a loss (combined with EJ). The Williams brothers were pretty quiet but for the most part I think the Bears were scheming to run away from them.

Overall Defense (B-) - gave up a lot of points but for the most part played their part. A ton of passing yards given up but kept the running game shut down. By my simple math they gave up 22 rushing yards in the 2nd half. It is always nice to make teams 1 dimensional, now we just need to figure out what to do with them when we know they are going to pass.

All in all this was a good game by the Purple. On the road, against the defending NFC champs and we were clearly the physically dominant team. That was the first time all year we have won the battle at the line of scrimmage. This Bears defense isn't what it has been in recent memory but it still had Urlacher, Briggs, Hillenmeyer, Ogunleye, Tommy Harris (playing hurt) and Mark Anderson (6 of starting front 7 from week 1).

Chicago was able to hit us with big plays through the air and return games but we dominated the box on both sides of the ball. Hester is hands down the best returner in football, and if healthy will be one of the best all time (and 2nd to Favre as my most hated players in NFL, I can publish a list later). We won't have to face that with any other team.

The passing game remains a problem on both sides. The Bears were missing 3/4 secondary starters and we really didn't couldn't take advantage of that. Defensively the fact remains that ANYBODY can pass on this defense. That needs to be curtailed. I don't expect it to be fixed but it has to be mended a little bit.

Vikings v Bears Kool-Aided Preview (wk 6)

Denny Green is priceless, nobody can deny that. But I can't help but agree. The Bears are who we thought they were. And I think they are showing that this year. Before we get into the actual preview please enjoy this remix...



Seriously though the 2006 Bears were living on that razor thin edge of making exactly 1 monster play to win the game in spite of their QB making the plays to lose them the game.

Grossman in 2006

• @ Min - threw 2 picks including 1 for a TD. But defense makes a huge play late in the game to give the offense a final chance to win the game
• @ AZ - threw 4 picks but defense and special teams score 3 straight TDs to win the game
• vs. Min - throws 3 picks but defense scores 16 to win the game

All 3 games were wins in spite of your starting QB. And the team's 3 losses were all a direct result of Rexi and his poor play (all had 3 games he threw 3 INTs).

Flash forward to 2007, this has finally caught up with them. Injuries to the defense, a lack of a strong running game and awful QB play has led the defending NFC Champs to a 2-3 record. Rexi has been benched and Griese has given mixed results through 2 games.

Of course the Vikings have their own set of issues, ESPECIALLY at QB. This makes for an interesting matchup and will likely be a very ugly game.

Here are the Keys to a Viking Victory...

1. Cover the Tight Ends - I know this is not a sexy key matchup but I think it is huge. The Bears have not shown a strong running game all year. Griese has not shown an ability to throw the ball downfield (and he has 4 INTs in 2 games). Statistical examples?...

• Muhammad + Berrian = 2 catches vs. Green Bay
• Greg Olson + Desmond Clark = 7 catches and 2 TDs vs. Green Bay
• Cedric Benson is averaging 60 yards per game (50.5 if you take out KC)
• Chicago Rushing offense = 27th in the league vs. Min's #1 rushing defense
  

Cedric Benson does not worry me. Griese loves the check down so his wideouts aren't as scary either. But EJ Henderson and the safetys have to cover the TEs and not let them beat us in the middle of the field.

2. Run the Ball with the Pass - The Bears started the year strong against the run, but recently they have been more succeptable. I think eventually we'll be able to establish some semblance of a running game. With that said, there is no doubt that the Bears will be keying on the run each and every play and the Vikings struggle (mightily) to pass the ball. I'm not asking for this zebra to change his stripes, I don't expect Jackson or Holcomb to rack up 300 yards of passing to the receivers.

What I want to see are screens and swing passes to Peterson and let him get out in space and make guys miss. Play Action then hit the back when he clears. Short passes that are essentially runs will be more effective than trying to run the ball down the throat of this Bear defense. We have been unable to dominate the line of scrimmage in any game this year and I don't expect that to change against this D. But short/quick passes will hide our lack of a real passing game and hide Bryant McKinnie's inability to pass block.

3. Don't let their Special Teams win the game - We don't have to win the special team's battle but just have to be relatively even. If Hester is able to return one for 6 or consistently put their anemic offense 20 yards closer to a FG then Minnesota will struggle to keep up in the battle for 3 points. Kick it out of bounds if you have to but don't let Hester win this game for them. He has done it before and is capable of it every week.

Fearless Prediction...

Vikings win 18-16 and here is how it ends.

Longwell lines up for the game winning 37 yd FG. Right before the snap Lovie calls a timeout to rattle the Vikings kicker. Longwell actually misses that FG but gets a 2nd chance because of Lovie's timeout. Ryan nails the 2nd attempt and Minnesota wins.

I suck at blogging...

I have been putting all of my blogging energies into Gopher Nation, but so much has gone on I need to throw out some Viking thoughts...

• Blackout? Are you kidding me? - This is the home opener and we can't sell out the Dome. Even in years past there has been even a little buzz and excitement about the season. The Vikings have always dominated this town but as I have previously posted there is more NFL apathy in the Twin Cities than ever before.
  
• BOLD Prediction - the Bears will not win the division! On paper this makes very little sense but in the NFL things rarely end up as the "experts" anticipate. Their defense is good, they are the defending NFC Champs and their special teams are great. BUT, their QB is very questionable, they have no depth at RB, they have the curse of the Super Bowl loser and did I mention that their QB is questionable? Grossman has a better chance of leading this team back to mediocrity than he does of leading them to Arizona. I like Benson but if he goes down this offense will be in trouble. And I think we'll see more holes in this defense than before. In 2006 their yards per game and pts allowed both increased from 2005. I see nothing that this D will improve on their numbers and they'll continue to be in difficult situations as long as Grossman is QB.
  
• BOLDER Prediction - the Vikings will win the NFC North! It should be noted that I am a registered Kool-Aid Drinker and will proudly stand by the Vikings. But I think this could be the surprise team of the NFC. Tarvaris is totally unproven, this I know. But we have what could be one of the best running games in the league, which will ease his transition. The Vikings defense is good good enough to win some games and keep us in the rest. There has to be a few things that come together but I'm hopeful and this will be the surprise team of the NFC.
  
• Bring on the Kids - The Vikings have a TON of 1st and 2nd round kids playing for the first time this season or will be counted on this year. 2 true rookies, a couple guys who are essentially rookies and a couple with 1 yr experience who will be counted upon heavily. 1st and 2nd round picks have to contribute and we have several. Watch this young core of players as they grow this could be the start of a special team.
  
• QB - Tarvaris Jackson - 2nd round pick (2006), essentially his first season
• RB - Adrian Peterson - 1st round pick (2007), ROOKIE
• WR - Sydney Rice - 2nd round pick (2007), ROOKIE
• LB - Chad Greenway - 1st round pick (2006), missed rookie season due to injury
• CB - Cedric Griffin - 2nd round pick (2006), played a lot but will be crucial this year
• OL - Ryan Cook - 2nd round pick (2006), starting RT
• Game by game official PKA predictions.
• Atl - W (1-0)
• @Det - W (2-0) - 10 wins are just not in the cards for Det
• @KC - W (3-0) - run D too much for LJ and they have not passing game
• GB - W (4-0) - now things get interesting
• bye
• @Chi - W (5-0) - bye week gives 2 weeks to prepare and we'll avenge 0-2 from last year
• @Dal - W (6-0) - TO will be hurt by now and we steal this one
• Phi - W (7-0) - at home we win
• SD - L (7-1) - I'm anxious to see our run D vs. LT but Chargers if healthy win
• @GB - W (8-1) - Aaron Rogers first NFL start won't be pretty
• Oak - W (9-1) - Raiders suck
• @NYG W (10-1) - Giants suck
  
• Det - W (11-1) - Lions suck
• @SF - W (12-1) - 49ers suck
• Chi - W (13-1) - like I even need to justify this one!
• Was - W (14-1) - nothing about the 'skins scares me
• @Den - L (14-2) - obviously resting our starters

There you have it 14-2 is the official prediction (9-7 would be my realistic prediction). Home field advantage and the odds on favorite to be the next great NFL dynasty!

NFC North Offseason Needs

Here is a brief look at what Purple Kool Aid thinks are the primary needs of NFC North teams...

Chicago - This team was in the Manning Bowl so the cupboard is not exactly bare. They don't need much but they still need to improve if they want to get back to the SB and have a shot at winning it. Here are some things they need to figure out...

1. Figure out the QB situation. I know Rex was the guy that got them to XLI, but to call his play erratic is an understatement. Rex was fortunate to have his defense and Hester win games for him, over the long haul he won't be so fortunate. The Bears need him to figure things out and take 2 steps forward or they'll suffer the fate of the recent trend of SB losing teams.
2. Coaching stability - a couple days ago this was a bigger deal, but today they wrapped up Lovie to a contract extension. The departure of Rivera is kind of intersting but it will remain to be seen if that affects the defense.
3. Depth on defense - the loss of Tommie Harris and Mike Brown severely hurt their run defense. This unit was an historic unit for the first half of the year, but did enough to get by as the regular season came to a close.

Detroit - This could be a long list but I'll try to keep it brief. The problem is their weakest link is the one calling the shots in the months of February through July. As a Vikings fan I love Matt Millen but he has yet to show he can help a team to actually improve it's talent level.

1. Find a QB - Kitna was adequate as he tried to lead a losing team to not lose as much, but he clearly is not a viable long term solution. They'll have the opportunity to draft a QB with the #2 pick in the draft but they are projected to take OT Joe Thomas. This is probably a wise move but they have to figure something out for QB. Fortunately Matt Millen is around to solve this mystery.
2. Fix the Defense - While the Lions have struggled in recent years (the Millen Era) at least they used to have a feared defensive front 4. Now there is very little about the Lion's D that frightens anyone except Lion's fans. 30th in the league in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed. Ernie Simms was a nice draft pick last year and is one of the pieces that can help build this unit back to respectability. But that is one piece and Millen needs to find several more to go with him.
3. Offensive Line - We already addressed the QB situation, the WR situation is good and Kevin Jones shouldn't be judged to harshly since has no OLine. Speculation is that the Lions will draft Joe Thomas with the #2 overall pick and that should be a big step in the right direction (I wouldn't rule out a Jarrett or Ted Ginn Jr. pick there though). The trenches need to be addressed if this team wants to take any steps forward.

Green Bay - this team finished hot and now Brett Favre is energized to come back and capture that career INT record (and I think he's somewhere near some career TD record). Really though this team was very young and steadily improved over the course of the 16 games, especially the OLine. Here are the things they need to get back into the playoffs...

1. Wide Receiver - having Donald Driver is always nice but they are missing a big play guy that will open up the shorter routes for Driver and theoretically make thing easier on Favre. Rumors are now surfacing that the Pack might make a move for Randy Moss. While this is intriguing I don't know if it will be as beautiful a marriage as people think. The other wild card is Koren Robinson. Reports are that the Packers are keeping Koren on their roster and plan to utilize his talent when he is eligible to return from his NFL suspension. That is a possible dirty bomb waiting to go off.
2. Running Back - Ahman Green is an unrestricted free agent so ittle explanation is needed here. There is nothing behind Green so sign him and drafting a RB would probably be a great idea. Early Indications are that the Packers will draft Mashawn Lynch RB Cal. Lynch has some baggage but also loads of talent.
3. Quarterback - This is a skill position heavy list of needs, but Favre can't and won't play forever. Is Rogers ready to take over in 2008 or more importantly is he ready to play should Favre have to miss some time due to injury? For a team that could be in the wild card hunt losing a couple games because of an inexperienced backup QB can't happen.

Minnesota - here is a more detailed list of the Viking's needs. 6-10 was a very disappointing finish for a team that started hot and had expectations of playoffs. A team that was the best in the league against the run and was capable of running the ball should be a playoff team. But there were some problems...

1. Wide Receiver - This is slightly more of a pressing need than the Packers have. Green Bay at least has Driver, Minnesota has Troy Williamson? This is an ugly situation that doesn't look solvable in the near future. Free agency is weak but this is a WR heavy draft and that will help but the Vikings need 2 good WRs to contribute NOW. Rumors persist that the Vikings might make a move for Ashley Lelei. This is a step in the right direction but not enough, my dream is that we move up in the draft and land Calvin Johnson, but that won't happen.
2. Right side of OL - Guard and Tackle were atrocious in 2006. Youngsters Ryan Cook and Marcus Johnson will likely battle for RT, but upgrading RG would make the RT hole a bit easier to swallow. Could be a 1st day draft pick or a mid-level free agent signing to "fix" this problem.
3. Defensive End - This might be taken care of by returning Erasmus James from injury, but the pass rush was non-existent in 2006. The DT combo of the Williams brothers was easily the best in the division but the attention they require did nothing to help the outside get to the QB. Most likely scenario I predict is the Vikings use the #7 pick on DE and 2nd round pick on a WR.

Sunday"s Divisional Games...

So I was completely wrong on the Indy game and I was pretty close on the New Orleans win. I guess that just means Dungy won't get fired and he won't become a candidate for the Gopher job that he is already "not a candidate for." (Copyright Nick Saban).

Seattle @ Chicago

This game is just underway so I need to get this typed before Grossman throws an INT. This is a tough one to call. The Bears have not been playing well over the last few games, especially at QB. Seattle has been dramatically up and down. So if Seattle is playing well I wouldn't hesitate to call this game for them. Chicago has had extra time to prepare and hopefully for Bears fans Grossman has his bearings again. I don't think this one is pretty but Chicago eeeks it out at home.

Chicago - 17
Seattle - 14

UPDATE - "we want the ball and we're gonna score!" Seattle/Chicago have played a very entertaining game and are now headed to OT. Settle will get the ball. Will Hasselbeck repeat his OT playoff performance of 2003 @ Green Bay. At the coin toss Matt declared "we want the ball and we're gonna score!" He then threw a pick 6 to Al Harris and Green Bay won.

New England @ San Diego

This obviously is the premier game this weekend. The current best player in the league (that would be Tomlinson) vs. the premier playoff QB and coach. Both teams are well coached, both teams play great together as a team and both teams have playoff experience. My infinite knowledge tells me never to go against Belichick and Brady even if the other team has LT. The Belichick/Brady factor + Philip Rivers being essentially a rookie QB = a Patriot upset victory.

New England by 4

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 15)

Vikings win but we don't get much help from the rest of the league. There is still time and there is still reason for optimism. 6-4 NFC record is still very solid and guarantee of 2 teams ahead of us losing this week.

Division Leaders

1. NFC North - Chicago (11-2, 9-0, 4-0) - clinched 1st round bye
2. NFC South - New Orleans (9-4, 8-1, 4-1) - maintains 2 game Division lead, helped bye resume by destroying Dallas.
3. NFC West - Seattle (8-5, 6-4, 3-2)- lucky to be in terrible division
4. NFC South - Dallas (8-5, 5-4, 2-3) - lost to NEW hottest team in NFC, holding on to division lead

Wild Card (overall, conference)

5. IN - NY Giants (7-6, 6-3) - nice win over Carolina, now home vs. Philly is big test.
6. IN - Philadelphia (7-6, -63) - battle with NYG for team to maintain WC position.
7. OUT - Atlanta (7-6, 5-4) - How 'bout them Cowboys!!
8. OUT - Minnesota (6-7, 6-4) - didn't get needed help in wk 14, this week should be better.
9. OUT - Carolina (6-7, 4-6)

St. Louis and San Fran are off the radar until they get to .500. Green Bay is out, now they can win to get a worse draft pick.

Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)...

• Dallas over Atlanta - CHECK
  
• Phildelphia over NY Giants - we need both to lose, but I think Philly will lose next week so beat the vaGiants.
  
• Pittsburgh over Carolina - not a huge deal but we can't let Carolina get back ahead of us.
  

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 14)

The roller coaster continues and Vikings fans are still hanging to playoff hopes (or nightmares) by a thread. Last week I posted what we needed to happen in 6 NFC playoff related games. 5 of those 6 happened as we need them, which would have been great (if only we would have won). So ultimately it just prolonged the inevitable. Here are where things stand...

Division Leaders

1. NFC North - Chicago (10-2, 8-0, 4-0)
2. NFC South - New Orleans (8-4, 7-1, 4-1) - now a 2 game Division lead, now fighting for bye.
3. NFC West - Seattle (8-4, 6-3, 3-1)
4. NFC South - Dallas (8-4, 5-3, 2-3) - hottest team in NFC but still playing WC weekend.

Wild Card (overall, conference)

5. IN - NY Giants (6-6, 5-3) - 4 straight losses, but holding on.
Key Games - @Car(wk14), vPhi(wk15)
H2H Tiebreakers - Atl, Phi
6. IN - Philadelphia (6-6, 5-3) - nice win over Carolina to sneak into 6th spot(for now).
Key Games - @NYG(wk15), @Dal(wk16), vAtl(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - GB, SF
7. OUT - Atlanta (6-6, 4-4)
Key Games - vDal(wk15), vCar(wk16), @Phi(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - none
8. OUT - Carolina (6-6, 4-5)
Key Games - vNYG(wk14), @Atl(wk16), @NO(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - Stl
9. OUT - Minnesota (5-7, 5-4) - clinging to hopes with NFC record and Car H2H.
Key Games - vStl(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - Car

St. Louis and San Fran are off the radar until they get to .500. Green Bay is out, now they can win to get a worse draft pick.

Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)...

• Tampa Bay over Atlanta - #1 game we need this week
  
• Carolina over NY Giants - We need to catch the Giants this week, then Carolina after that.
  
• Washington over Philadelphia
  
• New Orleans over Dallas
  
• Chicago over St. Louis
  
• Green Bay over San Fran

And the envelope please...

The PKA award for worse NFL game in the history of the NFL goes to....

Minnesota at Chicago - Dec. 3rd, 2006

Bears win and Vikings fans can say "contrats your team was only slightly less horrible than our team." But that is the bitterness of spoiled Kool Aid talking.

Brad Johnson, had the worst game of his career and his QB rating was 10 times better than his opponent's who finished with an outstanding rating of 1.3. Jim Souhan said it best when he said that Johnson could have switched sidelines and both teams would instantly have been better.

When is the Viking's defense going to stage a mutiny. The offense / special teams have given up 6 TDs in 13 games. If you figure that several turnovers by this offense have put the D in situations that led to TDs they are probably responsible for giving up as many points as the defense.

The hapless, bungling, maladroit, mistake-making and gut wrenching offense is directly responsible for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory 4 times (Chi-1, SF, Mia, Chi-2). I boldly proclaim that if we had even a mediocre offense (read mediocre QB/WR) this team is sitting at 9-3 with a game lead over the 8-4 Bears.

I know that the NFL season has games you win ugly, games you lose that you coulda/shoulda won, games you should have lost, yada, yada, yada. Seriously, look at those games...

• Chicago(H) - We fumble when all we had to do was not and it is either a lock to win or Bears have to go 80+ after we punt.
• SanFran - Niners had been giving up 30+ ppg up to that point and we manage 3.
• Miami - Offense give Miami 2 TDs off turnovers. Defense is not at fault here.
• Chicago(A) - Defense gets you 5 turnovers and puts you in good field position. You keep things even keel and give it back to them 4 times.

OK, I'll be generous to the opponents and say looking at it from the other team's perspective I'll chalk the Carolina and the Chicago-2 game as losses. 7-5 and down 2 games to the 9-3 Bears. These scenarios don't even count GB and home and a winnable game at Buffalo.

But the season is what it is. We are 5-7 and unfortunately still in the playoff hunt. I am a firm believer that the worst records to have in the NFL are anything between 7-9 and 10-6. Even if you make the playoffs at 9-7 (or 10-6) you aren't going anywhere and if you miss it at 7-9 or 8-8 you just put yourself closer to drafting 25th than 10th.

At this point I am cheering for either 4-0 or 0-4. I know that 4-0 puts you at 9-7, but that is likely playoffs and better than 8-8 or 7-9 and not in the playoffs. 0-4 is a top 10 draft pick. An impact draft pick on a team that isn't too far away from 10+ wins looks awefully nice.

Quick Preview

I had a busy week and I don't have much time to get this week's rivalry prediction out there. It is never too early to drink the Kool-Aid on a Sunday morning so here we go...

T Jones gets 13 yards rushing
Rex has to throw a lot which will equate to INTs
Pat Williams will make Kruetz his bitch
Chester will have a low yds per carry stat but he'll get 80.

Vikings win!

Minnesota - 3
Chicago - 0

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 13)

What a difference a week makes huh? Last week the Vikes were sitting as the 10th best team in the league and facing what seemed to be an insurmountable hill to get into the post season. Well, things fell our way this week, we took care of business (for the first time in November) and we now sit 1 game out of the playoffs. Here is how it all breaks down and at the bottom will be a list of teams we are chearing for this week.

Current Divisional Leaders (records in () are overall, conference, divisional)

1. NFC North - Chicago (9-2, 7-0, 3-0) - The Bears lost, but to an AFC team so it was ultimately meaningless as they still hold a 2 game lead for home field and conference record probably won't be matched so it is basically a 3 game lead. I don't see that kind of collapse in this Bear team, especially with their remaining schedule.
2. NFC South - New Orleans (7-4, 6-1, 4-1) - New Orleans is the surprise team of this year. With a home game vs. SanFran this week they look to stay close to the Bears in case they do slip just a bit.
3. NFC West - Seattle (7-4, 6-3, 3-1) - Survived a scare through 3 qtrs on Monday night, but this team is 0nly getting stronger as we get into December. Essentially a 3 game lead on the division makes this team almost as safe as Chicago.
4. NFC East - Dallas (7-4, 4-3, 1-3) - The Giants are fading and the Cowboys are surging with Romo under center and TO dropping passes. Still a weak divisional record leaves the door open for NYG, but they are up for now and have an oportunity to widen the gap with a game at New York this week.

Wild Card (overall, NFC record)

Things tightened this week for wild card hopefuls. Philly, SanFran, Atlanta all dropped while MN and STL gained ground making in more of a cluster as we head into December.

5. IN - NY Giants (6-5, 5-2) - 3 straight losses has bumped the Giants from an NFC contender to just another mediocre NFC team. Their next 3 weeks will tell us a LOT as they take on 3 other playofff contenders.
Key games Dal(wk13), @Car(wk14), vPhi(wk15). H2H Tiebreakers Atl, Dal, Phi
6. IN -Carolina (6-5, 4-4) - This is the team Vikings fans wanted to see on the WC list not a Divisional leader. Carolina has few H2H tiebreakers and most importantly lost to MN. And they finish their season with 2 road divisional games. Carolina is holding on but just barely.
Key games @Phi(wk13) vNYG(wk14) @Atl(wk 16) @NO(wk17). H2H Tiebreakers Stl

7. OUT - Minnnesota (5-6, 5-3) - Back in the win column and some help throughout the NFC has put MN 1 game out of the WC. As I've always stated we have solid tie breakers but a 4-1 finish is still likely what they'll need to extend their season. This week vs. the Bears would be a HUGE win but we can recover from a loss, it just makes things a bit harder.
Key games @Chi(wk13) (wk16) vSTL(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - Car, Sea
8. OUT - Philadelphia (5-6, 4-3) - The Eagles still have life but it is more vegetative without McNabb. With 4 of their remaining games vs. playoff contenders I think we need to hope for 1 or 2 key upsets that will help MN without letting Philly sneak in to a WC spot.
Key games vCar(wk13) @NYG(wk15) @Dal(wk16) vAtl(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - GB, SF
9. OUT - SanFrancisco (5-6, 4-3) - I think SF edges out Stl because of better divisional record, but sitting 9th or 10th is essentially the same thing. Trips to Seattle and to Denver likely will doom the improved 49ers.
Key Games @NO(wk13), vGB(wk14) @Sea(wk15). H2H Tiebreaker - Min
10. St. Louis (5-6, 4-4) - Leapfrogged Atlanta, but still looking up at too many teams. The Rams have a few easier games left on their schedule so they'll probably move higher on the list before they move down. Week 17 in Minnesota might determine the playoff lives of those teams.
Key games vChi(wk14) @MN(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - GB
11. OUT - Atlanta (5-6, 3-4) - The frustration mounts and the freefall continues for the Falcons. Next 2 weeks are winnable but on the road so that may be a lot to overcome for this struggling team.
Key games vDal(wk15) vCar(wk16) @Phi(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - none

Others...
Green Bay (4-7, 3-5) - Going 5-0 to finish the year might not be enough considering they have no H2H tiebreakers. Time to start planning for post Favre in paint thinner territory.

Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)...

• Philadelphia over Carolina - I don't think Philly will catch us and we need Carolina to lose 1 more game than MN in the next 5 weeks
  
• New Orleans over SanFran - we can't catch NO, SF has H2H over us and we need NO to maintain Divisional lead over Car
• Dallas over NYGiants - we can't catch Dal, bring NYG back to pack so we can land that 1st WC spot and breath easier over the last couple weeks
• Arizona over St. Louis - get Stl out of the picture so they have nothing to play for in wk 17
• Washington over Atlanta - also get Atl out of the picture