NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 15)

Vikings win but we don't get much help from the rest of the league. There is still time and there is still reason for optimism. 6-4 NFC record is still very solid and guarantee of 2 teams ahead of us losing this week.

Division Leaders

1. NFC North - Chicago (11-2, 9-0, 4-0) - clinched 1st round bye
2. NFC South - New Orleans (9-4, 8-1, 4-1) - maintains 2 game Division lead, helped bye resume by destroying Dallas.
3. NFC West - Seattle (8-5, 6-4, 3-2)- lucky to be in terrible division
4. NFC South - Dallas (8-5, 5-4, 2-3) - lost to NEW hottest team in NFC, holding on to division lead

Wild Card (overall, conference)

5. IN - NY Giants (7-6, 6-3) - nice win over Carolina, now home vs. Philly is big test.
6. IN - Philadelphia (7-6, -63) - battle with NYG for team to maintain WC position.
7. OUT - Atlanta (7-6, 5-4) - How 'bout them Cowboys!!
8. OUT - Minnesota (6-7, 6-4) - didn't get needed help in wk 14, this week should be better.
9. OUT - Carolina (6-7, 4-6)

St. Louis and San Fran are off the radar until they get to .500. Green Bay is out, now they can win to get a worse draft pick.

Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)...

• Dallas over Atlanta - CHECK
  
• Phildelphia over NY Giants - we need both to lose, but I think Philly will lose next week so beat the vaGiants.
  
• Pittsburgh over Carolina - not a huge deal but we can't let Carolina get back ahead of us.
  

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 14)

The roller coaster continues and Vikings fans are still hanging to playoff hopes (or nightmares) by a thread. Last week I posted what we needed to happen in 6 NFC playoff related games. 5 of those 6 happened as we need them, which would have been great (if only we would have won). So ultimately it just prolonged the inevitable. Here are where things stand...

Division Leaders

1. NFC North - Chicago (10-2, 8-0, 4-0)
2. NFC South - New Orleans (8-4, 7-1, 4-1) - now a 2 game Division lead, now fighting for bye.
3. NFC West - Seattle (8-4, 6-3, 3-1)
4. NFC South - Dallas (8-4, 5-3, 2-3) - hottest team in NFC but still playing WC weekend.

Wild Card (overall, conference)

5. IN - NY Giants (6-6, 5-3) - 4 straight losses, but holding on.
Key Games - @Car(wk14), vPhi(wk15)
H2H Tiebreakers - Atl, Phi
6. IN - Philadelphia (6-6, 5-3) - nice win over Carolina to sneak into 6th spot(for now).
Key Games - @NYG(wk15), @Dal(wk16), vAtl(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - GB, SF
7. OUT - Atlanta (6-6, 4-4)
Key Games - vDal(wk15), vCar(wk16), @Phi(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - none
8. OUT - Carolina (6-6, 4-5)
Key Games - vNYG(wk14), @Atl(wk16), @NO(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - Stl
9. OUT - Minnesota (5-7, 5-4) - clinging to hopes with NFC record and Car H2H.
Key Games - vStl(wk17)
H2H Tiebreakers - Car

St. Louis and San Fran are off the radar until they get to .500. Green Bay is out, now they can win to get a worse draft pick.

Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)...

• Tampa Bay over Atlanta - #1 game we need this week
  
• Carolina over NY Giants - We need to catch the Giants this week, then Carolina after that.
  
• Washington over Philadelphia
  
• New Orleans over Dallas
  
• Chicago over St. Louis
  
• Green Bay over San Fran

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 13)

What a difference a week makes huh? Last week the Vikes were sitting as the 10th best team in the league and facing what seemed to be an insurmountable hill to get into the post season. Well, things fell our way this week, we took care of business (for the first time in November) and we now sit 1 game out of the playoffs. Here is how it all breaks down and at the bottom will be a list of teams we are chearing for this week.

Current Divisional Leaders (records in () are overall, conference, divisional)

1. NFC North - Chicago (9-2, 7-0, 3-0) - The Bears lost, but to an AFC team so it was ultimately meaningless as they still hold a 2 game lead for home field and conference record probably won't be matched so it is basically a 3 game lead. I don't see that kind of collapse in this Bear team, especially with their remaining schedule.
2. NFC South - New Orleans (7-4, 6-1, 4-1) - New Orleans is the surprise team of this year. With a home game vs. SanFran this week they look to stay close to the Bears in case they do slip just a bit.
3. NFC West - Seattle (7-4, 6-3, 3-1) - Survived a scare through 3 qtrs on Monday night, but this team is 0nly getting stronger as we get into December. Essentially a 3 game lead on the division makes this team almost as safe as Chicago.
4. NFC East - Dallas (7-4, 4-3, 1-3) - The Giants are fading and the Cowboys are surging with Romo under center and TO dropping passes. Still a weak divisional record leaves the door open for NYG, but they are up for now and have an oportunity to widen the gap with a game at New York this week.

Wild Card (overall, NFC record)

Things tightened this week for wild card hopefuls. Philly, SanFran, Atlanta all dropped while MN and STL gained ground making in more of a cluster as we head into December.

5. IN - NY Giants (6-5, 5-2) - 3 straight losses has bumped the Giants from an NFC contender to just another mediocre NFC team. Their next 3 weeks will tell us a LOT as they take on 3 other playofff contenders.
Key games Dal(wk13), @Car(wk14), vPhi(wk15). H2H Tiebreakers Atl, Dal, Phi
6. IN -Carolina (6-5, 4-4) - This is the team Vikings fans wanted to see on the WC list not a Divisional leader. Carolina has few H2H tiebreakers and most importantly lost to MN. And they finish their season with 2 road divisional games. Carolina is holding on but just barely.
Key games @Phi(wk13) vNYG(wk14) @Atl(wk 16) @NO(wk17). H2H Tiebreakers Stl

7. OUT - Minnnesota (5-6, 5-3) - Back in the win column and some help throughout the NFC has put MN 1 game out of the WC. As I've always stated we have solid tie breakers but a 4-1 finish is still likely what they'll need to extend their season. This week vs. the Bears would be a HUGE win but we can recover from a loss, it just makes things a bit harder.
Key games @Chi(wk13) (wk16) vSTL(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - Car, Sea
8. OUT - Philadelphia (5-6, 4-3) - The Eagles still have life but it is more vegetative without McNabb. With 4 of their remaining games vs. playoff contenders I think we need to hope for 1 or 2 key upsets that will help MN without letting Philly sneak in to a WC spot.
Key games vCar(wk13) @NYG(wk15) @Dal(wk16) vAtl(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - GB, SF
9. OUT - SanFrancisco (5-6, 4-3) - I think SF edges out Stl because of better divisional record, but sitting 9th or 10th is essentially the same thing. Trips to Seattle and to Denver likely will doom the improved 49ers.
Key Games @NO(wk13), vGB(wk14) @Sea(wk15). H2H Tiebreaker - Min
10. St. Louis (5-6, 4-4) - Leapfrogged Atlanta, but still looking up at too many teams. The Rams have a few easier games left on their schedule so they'll probably move higher on the list before they move down. Week 17 in Minnesota might determine the playoff lives of those teams.
Key games vChi(wk14) @MN(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - GB
11. OUT - Atlanta (5-6, 3-4) - The frustration mounts and the freefall continues for the Falcons. Next 2 weeks are winnable but on the road so that may be a lot to overcome for this struggling team.
Key games vDal(wk15) vCar(wk16) @Phi(wk17). H2H Tiebreaker - none

Others...
Green Bay (4-7, 3-5) - Going 5-0 to finish the year might not be enough considering they have no H2H tiebreakers. Time to start planning for post Favre in paint thinner territory.

Vikings fans games to watch (in order of importance)...

• Philadelphia over Carolina - I don't think Philly will catch us and we need Carolina to lose 1 more game than MN in the next 5 weeks
  
• New Orleans over SanFran - we can't catch NO, SF has H2H over us and we need NO to maintain Divisional lead over Car
• Dallas over NYGiants - we can't catch Dal, bring NYG back to pack so we can land that 1st WC spot and breath easier over the last couple weeks
• Arizona over St. Louis - get Stl out of the picture so they have nothing to play for in wk 17
• Washington over Atlanta - also get Atl out of the picture

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 12)

Since my last Playoff recap the Vikings have fallen to the fringe of the playoff radar. My rule before was that you had to be .500 to get consideration, but I'm changing the rules because I think the Vikings still have a shot (my Kool Aid gets stronger with each passing week).

Current Playoff Scenarios (records in () are overall, conference, divisional)

NFC East - NY Giants (6-4, 5-2, 3-0) - NYG has gone 1-2 in the last 3 weeks and are tied with Dallas, but I think the Giants are safe due to their divisional and conferenc records. They are @ Tenn this week before the Cowboys come to town for the game that could give them yet another tie breaker over Dallas.
NFC North - Chicago (9-1, 7-0, 3-0) - The Bears are only playing for homefield throughout and with a 3 game lead over anybody in the NFC they should clinch that sooner rather than later.
NFC South - Carolina (6-4, 4-3, 3-1) - The Panthers passed Atlanta and New Orleans in the last 3 weeks to hold a slight lead for division champs. They are tied with the Saints at 6-4, but hold the head to head, at least until they meet in the Superdome in week 17.
NFC West - Seattle (6-4, 5-3, 3-1) - The Panthers seemed to clinch when they beat St. Louis for the 2nd time in week 10, but lost a bad game to SanFran in week 11. Fortunately for them St. Louis has fallen off the map with 5 straight losses.

Wild Card (overall and NFC record)

3 weeks ago the WC teams were Atlanta and Minnesota, they have both lost 3 straight and are fighting for their playoff lives. I also mentioned that there is always one team to come out of no where and make a run at the WC, this year's team appears to be San Fran. They certainly were not on anybody's radar 3 weeks ago and at 5-5 they are in the mix. Here is the current list of teams fighting to get in.

IN - New Orleans (6-4, 5-1) - NFC record of 5-1 gives them the edge over the Cowboys. The Saints have a tough remaining schedule including their next 3 vs. teams fighting for NFC playoffs. Their next 3 games may determine their fate. Key games @Atl(wk12), vSF(wk13), @Dal(wk14). H2H Tiebreakers Philly
IN - Dallas (6-4, 3-3) - Their recent win over Indy solidified them as a legit NFL team but really didn't boost their NFC resume all that much. Ultimately they are 3-3 in the NFC and only 1-3 in their own division. Tie breakers are not currently in their favor so they must have a 1 game lead over somebody to make the playoffs. Key games @NYG(wk13) vNO(wk14). H2H Tiebreakers Car

OUT - Philadelphia (5-5, 4-3) - Lost 3 of last 4 to fall out of playoffs. This team may head south in a hurry with McNabb out for the season, a trip tin Indianapolis this week and 4 road games in next 6 weeks. Key games vCar(wk13). H2H Tiebreaker - GB, SF
OUT - SanFrancisco (5-5, 4-3) - Look out, here come the new and improved Niners. After getting pummeled by the Bears they have won 3 straight. Some key games in the next 3 weeks put them in a similar boat as New Orleans. Win or play the last 3 for fun or draft position. @Stl(wk12), @NO(wk13), vGB(wk14). H2H Tiebreaker - Min
OUT - Atlanta (5-5, 3-3) - Vick surges, Falcons are in; Vick struggles, Falcons are out. It has been that simple through 10 weeks. So would the real Vick please stand up. After this week's game with NO, Atl can make up some ground vs. Was and TB or they can get back in the Brady Quinn sweepstakes. Key games vNO(wk12). H2H Tiebreaker - none
OUT - Minnnesota (4-6, 4-3) - 4 straight losses have made things very dicey for MN. But they remain on the list because of their tie breakers. They could have really solidified their playoff spot by beating SF in an ugly game and by beating GB at home, but they didn't and they sit at the bottom of teams with a shot. 5-1 to finish the season isn't unreasonable and with tie-breakers 9-7 MIGHT be enough, but ultimately they'll need some help. Key games all of them. H2H Tiebreaker - Car, Sea

Others...
Green Bay (4-6, 3-4) - with 3-4 conference record and no significant H2H wins outside of their division they'll have to go 6-0 and get some help.
St. Louis (4-6, 3-4) - same boat as Green Bay but they do have 4 of 6 remaining games at home.

NFC Playoff Picture (Pre-Week 9)

Alright - it is never to early to start looking at playoff scenarios. Since I only care about 1 team and they are in the NFC there will be little to no talk about AFC scenarios. The rule is that you either have to be .500 or close to .500 and a playoff team from last year to warrant any consideration. Here we go...


The Basics (for all of you girls, soccer fans and American males who live under rocks)

• There are 4 Divisions in the NFC and 16 teams (4 in each division for the math challenged).
• 6 teams make the playoffs
• The 4 division winners + the 2 remaining teams with the best records regardless of what division they come from.
• The Division winners with the best records get a bye.
• Basic tiebreakers are Overall record, Head 2 Head (if applicable) then NFC record.
  
• and that should cover the basics, without getting into tie breaker scenarios.

Current Playoff Scenarios (records in () are overall, NFC, divisional)

NFC East - NY Giants (5-2, 5-1, 3-0) - currently hold a 1 game lead over Dallas and Philly, but have beaten both of them on the road already. As it stands the Giants have put themselves in pefect position but there is a lot of season left and this is a tight division. Upcoming key game is home to Chicago in Week 10.
NFC North - Chicago (7-0, 6-0, 3-0) - 3 game lead over 2nd place MN is nearly a lock to win the division already. The Bears are really playing for homefield advantage throughout. Key game is @NYG in Week 10
NFC South - New Orleans (5-2, 4-1, 2-1) - the surprise team of the NFC is tied with Atlanta but the Saints beat the Falcons earlier to maintaint the lead. This division is also very tight as the Saints, Falcons and Panthers all have a shot to win this one.
NFC West - Seattle (4-3, 4-2, 2-0) - The defending NFC Champ has lost 2 in a row but has won @St. Louis who they are tied with for the division lead. Key game is STL in Week 10.

Wild Card (overall and NFC record)

IN - Atlanta (5-2, 3-2) - Overall record of 5-2 puts them in the WC drivers seat, but 3-2 NFC record needs some work or tie-breakers will not be pleasant to the dirty birds. H2H Tiebreaker - none
IN - Minnesota (4-3, 4-1) - This begins the run of 4-3 teams. MN would currently be the last WC team based on their 4-1 NFC record. Next 4 games are all very winnable games @SF, GB, @Mia, AZ. H2H Tiebreaker - Car, Sea

OUT - St. Louis (4-3, 3-2) - 2 game losing streak has currently put them looking up at the playoff teams. With KC, Sea, Car as upcoming games the Rams are in danger of losing 5 straight and falling off this list. Key games are @ Sea Wk10 and @ Car Wk11. H2H Tiebreaker - none
OUT - Dallas (4-3, 2-2) - The Cowboys had a big win @ Carolina this week to stay in the thick of things. Like MN, Dallas has a handful of "easier" games in the coming weeks to strengthen their playoff resume. H2H Tiebreaker - Car
OUT - Philadelphia (4-4, 3-3) - Would the real Philly team please stand up? The Eagles looked like a SuperBowl contender after their 4-1 start, but 3 straight losses have turned their playoff plans into hopes. They have their bye week to figure things out and for their fans hopefully will return to their form of the first 5 weeks. H2H Tiebreaker - none
OUT - Carolina (4-4, 2-3) - The Panthers have been very "Eagle-like" this season starting 0-2, 4-0, then 0-2. 4-4 is OK but what really hurts the Panthers is that they have lost any H2H tiebreakers with MN and Dal. H2H Tiebreaker - none

One team always waits until about this time of year then rattles off a bunch of wins to get their name in the Wild Card scenarios (see Washington and Minnesota from 2005). Green Bay looks to be the only team in that category this year. Their next 4 games will either put them out or make them a team to recon with. My vote is that it will put them closer to the Brady Quinn sweepstakes than it will to Wild Card weekend. They play @Buf, @MN, NE, @Sea.

So that basically leaves us with 10 teams fighting for 6 spots. That sounds good for MN, but when you say that really you have 6 teams fighting for 2 WC spots that makes it sound a bit more daunting. This week is big for the Vikings. SanFran will not be in a tie breaker scenario with MN so the H2H is meaningless but pusing their NFC record to 5-1 would be exactly what they need to maintain their WC hold.

The Morning After...

Another solid win for the Vikings in Week 2. The Panthers were a VERY popular pick to represent the NFC in this year's super bowl, 8 of the 12 ESPN "experts" had them winning the NFC and 2 had them winning the championship. Well, Chris Gamble better work on his punt return throw back if they plan to win any big games on the road this year.

In all seriousness this was another well played game by the Vikings as a team and winning games vs. good conference opponents are the games we'll look back on in December and be very thankful we came away with a W. We have now beat 2 teams that are expected to be in that mix of teams vying for a playoff spot. Beating them will only help in tie breakers for wild card or home field. Essentially we have a 3 game lead on Carolina and Washington. The Vikes can start airing their "it's not too late to get post season ticket priority" commercials any day now.

A month ago many would have looked at the first 5 games of our schedule and said 1-4 maybe 2-3 heading into the bye. Well things are now looking like 4-1 maybe even 5-0 before we take on Seattle and New England. This week vs. the Bears is another monster game for the purple.

My game balls go to...

• Ryan Longwell - for accounting for all of our points this week. 4 FGs and a passing TD.
• Napoleon Harris - I am a huge Napo skeptic, but he was huge this week accounting for 10 tackles and a big red zone sack.
  

Grades...

Offense (B) - Chester Taylor looked very good and Brad was as gutty as I've ever seen him. But the O-line was dissapointing. It is easy to put it all on Marcus Johson and the right side of the line, but Hutch was beat once and McKinnie was beat a couple times that I saw. In their defense this is hands down the best D-line we'll see all year, but Brad has to be pretty bruised today. The offense failed to score any points, had stupid penalties twice in the red zone and performed an abysmal 2-15 on 3rd down. With that said they got it done when they had to and had a nice drive in OT to secure the win.
QB (B+) - Brad had Julius Peppers in his face on virtually every play and still managed to complete 61% of his passes and post 243 yards.
RB (A-) - Taylor looked pretty good in my opinion. Much better rushing average this week and put up 113 while making guys miss once he got into space. Taylor is the best rushing threat we have had a few years.
WR/TE (B) - Williamson had the best game of his young career as he continues to look like a favorite target of Brad's. The rest of the crew was very quiet, someone needs to step up as a possession receiver so Troy can get downfield.
OL (C-) - I will grant that this D-line was very good if not the best in the League, but if you want to be considered one of the best O-lines you need to perform better than this against elite competition. Part of the blame has to be on the coaching staff for not giving better help toward Peppers, but this group could have done better.

Defense (A) - The defense came up big again this week. In the 2nd half we held Carolina to 102 yards, 6 points and came up huge in the OT period with a big sack (ruled imcomplete pass) on 3rd down to force the punt. We also forced 2 red zone FGs giving us 5 big red zone stops on this short season.
DL (B+) - I was hoping for this group to dominate the game more with the Panther's injuries on their O-line, but all in all these guys came up big. Both Williams boys made some big plays in the backfield and as a group they put serious pressure on Delhomme in the 4th qtr and OT.
LB (A+) - Napolean Harris finally had a breakout game. Defensive player of the game (for MN) with a huge red zone sack and 10 tackles. EJ had 5 tackles but had a couple nice coverage plays that will not show up in the stat book.
DB (B+) - Smoot and Smith both supported the run defense well and the group as a whole allowed only 164 yards passing (41 in the 2nd half). Keyshawn had a pretty good game with 5 catches for 106 yards, but I'd like to see how many times he was thrown to.

Special Teams (A+) - Good teams will have their special teams win about 1 game per year for them. No doubt that ST won this one for us. Recovering the Gamble fumble, Longwell creating a QB controversy, Longwell connecting on 4 FGs including the game winner again and Kluwe redeaming himself with a 46.3 punt average after 38.0 last week.

Coaching (A) - Once again we looked prepared and ready for the game. Opening drive was crisp and should have resulted in 7 points were it not for a stupid holding penalty inside the 10. The preparation for and execution of the fake FG was a much better gameplan than a reverse punt return. And the level of calm and poise of the entire team that elevates as the game progresses is encouraging.

Now it is on to the Bears. This will be the 1st of 3 games vs. Chicago this year, the winner of this game should decide who will host the other in the NFC Championship game!!

Vikings v Panthers Kool-Aided Preview

Week 2

Well, the PKA was accurate in week 1. The Vikings are 1-0 and we here at PKA are also 1-0 (I think we can both go 16-0 if the the Vikes hold up their end of the bargain). Here is how I see week 2's matchup with Carolina breaking down...

The Panthers are TERRIBUL and the Vikes are un beatable!!!

The Trenches - as I stated last week, this will be important in every game this year. Last week it held true as the O-line won the game in the 4th qtr and the D-line made 2 huge plays in the 4th to make sure a Redskin's 1st and goal resulted in only 3 points. This week is no different. The Panthers D-line is better than Washingtons and it is vital that our O-line protects Brad and lets Chester get to the LB level of the Panther defense. Kris Jenkins and Julius Peppers both grade out as the top DT and DE respectively in the NFL. We may not see a better D-line this season. Birk and Hutch should be able to handle the interior with the help of Hicks, but Peppers vs. Marcus Johnson is a key (if not THE key) to our offense being productive on Sunday.

Defensively this is a matchup that we have to win. The Panthers LT Travelle Wharton is out and their C Justin Hartwig is also likely not playing. RT Jordan Gross moves to LT and Todd Fordham starts at RT. This jumbled O-line is something that we HAVE to take advantage of. I'm hoping that our defensive scheme will involve giving a solid rush to the right side of their line and getting in Delhomme's face.

The Pretty Boys - Offensive skill positions are a little more important to this week's game. If Steve Smith plays he is obviously the key to their offense. Keeping him to under 200 yds might be a good idea this time around. I think better scheming and not just putting Smoot on an island with Smith will help a ton, but he has to be slowed down. On our side of the ball Troy Williamson has quickly become a factor. It was obvious that Brad looked his way early and often. It appears as though he is a favorite target, BUT Troy has to hang on to the ball or Brad will find a new catching partner. If Troy can get down field, make big 3rd down catches and actually hang on to the ball that will continue to open things up for the rest of the passing game and Chester on the ground. I wouldn't expect quite as many carries for Chester this week but hopefully he can still bang out 80-90 yds on 25 carries this week.

The Ball Hawks - Last week Carolina was held to 65 total yards rushing and were 2/12 on 3rd down. I'm guessing those are 2 things they are looking to correct this week. With the reshuffled O-line, hopefully they will not be able to get that ground game going and they'll be stuck in 3rd and long early and often. If that is the case the LBs and DBs need to turn last weeks stats into a trend. I feel that EJ had a solid game last week and he needs to continue that this week.

Keys to the game

1. Shutting down the Panther run game. The more 3rd and long situations and the quicker we can make them 1 dimensional the better for us. At that point we can key on Smith and attack their wounded O-Line.
2. Peppers vs. Marcus Johnson - I feel pretty good about the rest of our O-line vs. their D-line matchups, but this one makes me nervous. All week we've heard about the left side of our line, well Marcus now is the time for you to stand up and point out that our entire O-line is good, not just the left side.
3. Brad's trust in Troy - Brad is clearly looking Troy's direction and Troy needs to reward him with receptions, first downs and touchdowns. Dropping a perfectly thrown ball that goes right through your hands is unacceptable. Troy has the choice to be a fan favorite or the complete goat.
4. DBs vs. Steve Smith - the healthier Smith is the higher this moves up the list. Smith is very good and will make plays, but a TD and 201 yds on 11 catches (or 12 for 218 and 2 TDs vs. Chicago) are unacceptable and will secure a road win for the Panthers.

I know we are not supposed to look too far ahead, but this game is actually really huge. Carolina is wounded and on the road. We are playing well and completely healthy. This win (paired with the WAS win) really will come into play at the end of the season when we are compiling playoff scenarios. Washington and possibly Carolina are teams we could be vying for a wild card spot with. It is WAY too early to know who is a wild card team and who is a division winner, but it is never too early to rack up NFC wins to put us in a better position in December when that is all we will talk about. Every win is important, but head to head and NFC record will be a factor down the road so take care of business when you have the opportunity.

Verdict - Longwell has 3 FGs, but the game winning score will be a 4 qtr TD.
MN - 23 Car - 20