Jared Allen to the Vikings (?)

Rumors are heating up that Minnesota is in negotiations with Kansas City for the NFL's reigning sack leader, Jared Allen.

This seems like a perfect match. The Chiefs are in rebuilding mode, need draft picks to build the franchise and are not willing to hamper their future ability to sign players by paying Allen a monster contract now. The Vikings are in a very winable division, have a desperate need for sacks, have the pieces necessary to make this trade happen and have the cap room to pay Allen top dollar.

The Giants proved how important an effective pass rush is in the last third of the season. Minnesota has a solid group of quality players on defense but have trouble putting pressure on the QB without blitzhing. All of the names thrown out there as potential pass rushing specialists to debut in Purple next fall this is far and away a bigger marque name than Justin Smith, Antwan Odom, Jevon Kearse, Derrick Harvey or Phillip Merling.

The only move that would rival this would be moving up in the draft to take Chris Long or Vernon Gohlston. I think Allen would be more productive, but either of the rookie's would be a cheaper option with a ton of upside. While that move would rival this, it would not be as effective or give us the most bang for the 2008 season.

On his own Smith had more sacks than the entire Vikings starting defensive line last season (Williams, Williams, Udeze and Edwards).

It appears as though this trade would require a first round pick and then either a second or a third round pick (depending on what year KC gets our first round pick). If we give up next week's #17 pick then we would likely keep our 2nd, but if we give up next year's first rounder then we'd likely have to drop a second rounder as well. Something like that, the deal is far from complete but that is a general guideline.

I think if you can make this deal you do it! BUT, with all of that said, how much actual impact on the W/L columns would Allen have?

I know that addition of someone who potentially adds 10+ sacks and many more QB pressures, would allow this team to resemble a pass defense. But this defense was already a feared defense that kept the team in position to win nearly every game they played. It was last in the league against the pass but it dominated the league in rush defense and it was 6th in the NFC in points allowed (allowing 1 fewer point per game than 2006!).

What I'm getting at is, there is so much emphasis on the team adding a pass rushing defensive end for what? To reduce the passing yardage allowed? To give up fewer points? While both of those would be a good thing, the one and only position capable of taking this team from 8-8 to a 10-6 or even 11-5 team is the QB.

Let's take a look at the team's 8 losses from last year and asses how a DE would have had a greater impact on reversing the outcome than an improved passing game.

Week 2 - 17-20 loss @ Detroit
For my first example I am throwing out a game with mixed results. Jackson threw 4 interceptions, had he given a better effort or made better decisions we clearly would have won this game. BUT had the defense not given up 359 yds passing we likely would have won as well. Verdict: Well, we did knock Kitna out for much of the game and had 4 sacks so I still hold Jackson's INT's were more significant than the lack of a dominant pass rushing end.

Week 3 - 10-13 loss @ Kansas City
Anytime the defense holds a team to 13 points on the road you can't fault them for the loss. The Chiefs had 201 passing yards mostly on a quick hitting short passing game. Jared Allen can rush the QB but a quick hitting passing game negates that anyway. With that said, Allen did have 8 tackles and two sacks. His team won, coincidence?
Verdict: Put this one on a lack of offense. 4/15 third down conversion and inability to execute a game plan in the second half cost us this very winable game.

Week 4 - 16-23 loss vs. Green Bay
Favre's 344 yds and two TDs speak volumes. Getting a hand on Favre has been a serious problem for a few years against Green Bay. On the offensive side Holcomb had a solid game with 258 yds and a TD.
Verdict: Getting a pass rush potentially would have made a huge difference here. A late Vikings TD made this game look closer than it was. Jared Allen would not have made a 2 TD difference but it would have gone a long way to keeping us in the game and making Favre work for his yards.

Week 7 - 14-24 loss @ Dallas
Another tough one to call. Lets face it we were on the road facing the best of the regular season in the NFC. Jackson was terrible, Childress quit giving the ball to Purple Jesus and the defense allowed 277 passing yards.
Verdict: The defense had 3 sacks, I don't know how many they need to make a bigger difference. Jackson had 72 passing yards and the team was 2/12 on third down. Clearly an improved pass D would have helped but you won't beat a playoff team when your QB gives you 6/19 for 72 yards.

Week 8 - 16-23 loss vs. Philadelphia
On the season McNabb averaged 220 yards passing on the road but he managed to find 333 in the Metrodome. Bollinger and Holcomb combined for a very average but not crippling performance.
Verdict: Getting more than one sack from the defensive line may have helped here. This home game could have swung in our favor with some pressure on McNabb.

Week 10 - 0-34 loss @ Green Bay
Adding Reggie White and Chris Doleman to the Vikings line would not have helped here. Giving up 351 yards and 3 TDs to Favre is a problem. But not being able to put a single point on the board makes it awfully tough to win no matter what the defense does.
Verdict: Nobody gets credit for being able to swing this into the W column.

Week 16 - 21-32 loss vs. Washington
At this point they started letting Jackson play a little bit and he was OK. Todd Collins going 22/26 and racking up 254 yards is unacceptable. This was another case of a quick hitting passing gameplan so adding a Jared Allen may not have had much of an impact, accept we would not have been forced to blitz LBs leaving all three of them available to defend the short passing game.
Verdict: Jackson was good enough to win, passing D killed us. 2 sacks for the Vikes both by LBs.

Week 17 - 19-22 OT loss @ Denver
This one breaks down by halves. The first half was ugly offense, but Jackson showed why he is being given the reigns to Brad the Red Hot Childress Pepper's (BRHCP) Kick Ass Offense (KAO) in the fourth quarter.
Verdict: One sack by a LB shows that a sack or two from the DE may have done enough to force an earlier punt which leads to a FG which avoids overtime.

Here is how it breaks down with this expert analysis.

3 losses could have been avoided with better QB play
1 loss was unavoidable (shut out @ Green Bay)
4 losses could have been avoided with some DE pressure on the QB.

This is not to say that adding Joe Montana would have guarantee anything or adding Reggie White would have equated to a 12-4 season. But marked improvement at either position would have given us a better chance to win those games.

I don't know if Jared Allen alone will take us to the playoffs but adding Allen along with Madieu Williams' coverage skills from the safety position could really make a difference.

This team's ability to move up to the playoffs or even move into a team capable of winning the NFC rests more on the shoulders of Jackson and the passing game than the pass rush. But this is the ultimate team game and adding as many pieces to the puzzle as we can will always make a bid difference.

Lets get this deal done before Allen has a chance to get to Tampa Bay. Don't give up the farm, in fact do what you can to hang onto this year's #17 pick, but get this deal done and use the draft for other needs.

Star Tribune on the potential deal
Jay Glazer who broke the story for Fox Sports
Kansas City Star on Allen leaving KC
John Clayton weighs in
Daily Norseman is doing a dance already
Pioneer Press story today

Lets look ahead to 2008 - MN Free Agents

I'm all about staying positive here at PKA. Who needs the playoffs anyway, it's all rigged by the NFL offices and they hate the Vikings so we would have lost anyway.

All in all this can't be considered a terrible season for Brad the Red Hot Childress Pepper? Sure, we were the hottest team in the league and had a firm grip on the playoffs only to lose 2 in a row and miss out. But let's also remember we were sitting at 2-5 before we rattled off 6 wins in 7 weeks including W's over San Diego and the vaGiants who are both still playing.

For a year and a half we were looking for something (ANYTHING really) to show us that he was a capable head coach and that we had a QB with some upside. I think we saw it. For better or for worse BRHCP bought himself another year. Most of us are still skeptical but he did show a little life and a little talent as a coach. Now he has to be able to do it for 16 weeks.

The Vikings don't have a long list of free agents leaving so the basic roster is coming back. Here is the list of free agents in order of importance.

1. FB - Tony Richardson - aging FB, but he has been very good. Pro Bowl season and a key to the NFL's leading rushing attack. He'll be back if he doesn't retire. PKA BOLD PREDICTION - the Vikings bring Eagle's FB Thomas Tapeh (former gopher) as FB.
   
2. DT - Spencer Johnson - backup DT, but the position's depth ends with Johnson. He is solid and productive while giving the William's boys a break. Need to bring him back.
3. LB - Dontarrious Thomas - another backup, but capable of playing all LB positions. Very good on special teams and a solid backup that we could use on the roster in 2008.
4. RB - Mewelde Moore - one of the best 3rd string RBs in the League. When healthy and has an opportunity Moore has been productive. My guess is he'll leave for a chance to start cause chances are he won't beat out Purple Jesus in training camp.
5. WR - Robert Ferguson - made some mistakes and was invisible half of the time. But we are very thin at WR so brining him back at the right price may not be a bad idea. We could probably sign somebody with at least the same skill set, but he's been in the KAO for a year so he has that going for him.
6. S - Tank Williams - backup, often injured likely gone.
   
7. S - Mike Doss - signed late in summer, I'm not sure he ever played a snap, he gone.
   

That is a pretty short list with only a couple starters and a couple noteworthy backups. My guess is that Richardson, Johnson, Thomas and Ferguson are all back.

But 2006 was a 6-10 season and 2007 finished 8-8 so at least there was improvement. We bring back basically the entire roster and with this kid named Purple Jesus there is some serious hope for the future. 2008 better equal the playoffs or Ziggy better find himself a new coach.

COMING SOON: a look at team needs, available free agents and draft options.

Year 2 of the Kick Ass Offense

Last year the Vikings KAO was awful. But Brad the Red Hot Childress Pepper assured us it was a Kick Ass Offense if it is run right. Apparently we don't have the horses to run it yet, cause the offense is awful again. Fortunately we have Adrian Peterson and his big play ability cause without Purple Jesus' 3 TDs of 60 yards or more this team might be worst off than our current 2-4 predicament.

Based on results here are 2 hallmarks of the Kick Ass Offense

Unable to sustain a drive

This offense has scored 9 touchdowns this year. The average length of a TD drive has been 67 yards. That doesn't sound too bad (I don't know the league average) but when you look a little closer it isn't nearly that good.

• TD Drive #1 - 80 yards vs. Atlanta
• This looks like a legit drive right? WRONG. It took a 60 yard Purple Jesus swing pass to score. This doesn't count a legit drive, this was a great play by a playmaker.
• TD Drive #2 - 43 yards vs. Det
• This was a legit drive that started in Detroit territory.
• TD Drive #3 - 29 yards vs. Kansas City
• No big plays required, we only had to go 29 yards
• TD Drive #4 - 72 yards vs. Green Bay
• This one gets mixed reviews. A sustained drive BUT on 3rd and 38 (you read that right) we got a facemask by AJ Hawk that kept the drive alive.
• TD Drive #5 - 74 yards vs. Chicago
• TD Drive #6 - 80 yards vs. Chicago
• TD Drive #7 - 88 yards vs. Chicago
• TD Drive #8 - 68 yards vs. Chicago
• None of those are impressive either if you take out 60 yd pass to Williamson, and runs by Peterson of 67, 73, 35.
• TD Drive #9 - 69 yards vs. Dallas
• this was the best drive of the year.

So if you take out 60 yard runs by Purple Jesus this offense as has scored TDs on drives of 60 yards on average. Now, I'm not trying to indict this offense, but this is a problem.

You are just not going to win very many games when your offense is flat out incapable of sustaining a TD drive of more than 60 yards. This puts too much pressure on your defense and special teams.

Defense more potent than passing game

This one is pretty simple. Through 1/3 of the season the defense has more TDs than the passing game.

4 Touchdowns for the defense spread out over 3 games.
3 Touchdowns for the passing offense in 3 games

I'm not sure how the running game has been so productive. Usually when a team is good at running the ball defenses will "stack 8 in the box" to stop the run while still being able to cover a weak passing attack. Well, I wonder why defenses don't actually put 9 or 10 in the box. Most rushing offenses will use the run to set up the pass with play action. I'm not sure we can execute that so we pretty much use the run to set up more runs which often sets up incomplete passes.

We need a QB

I was hopeful for Tarvaris but I just don't think he is going to be a viable option at QB. I understand you have to be patient and QBs usually struggle in their first full year of starting. But you also should see some flashes of talent or playmaking ability. Through 8 starts I don't think we've seen anything. Not 1 play has Jackson been "impressive." I know he hit Williamson for 60 yards at Chicago. But that shouldn't count, Williamson had 3 steps on the coverage and Jackson hit him in stride. If he can't do that even once in a while he shouldn't be on an NFL practice squad.

I have seen in sports how stepping up to the next level takes some adjusting. When the game you are used to speeds up it takes time to adjust to the speed. Some players adjust and some just can't. I've seen players with tremendous talent who just can't adjust to a faster game. Players who adjust usually perform great when the game slows down for them, but watching TJax the game is clearly too fast for him right now and I don't know that it will slow down for him.

I don't think he should be benched (partly because our options are very limited). I think he gives us just as good a chance to win as Holcomb or Bollinger. But we cannot go into 2009 with Jackson as your only option at QB. I fear that he is not the answer nor the keeper of the Kick Ass Offense.

1 down 13 to go

Purple Kool Aid's fearless prediction of 14-2 is looking pretty good right about now. For those Packer fans reading this, that means we only have to go 13-2 the rest of the way to hit 14 wins (I know counting is an issue for the Wisconsin public school educated).

Game Balls...

• Offense - Adrian Peterson is the obvious choice. 103 yards rushing and a 60 yard TD reception is a nice start to the career. Most importantly it was obvious that Purple Jesus has that rare "burst". I know that sounds vague and the kind of expert analysis that you'd get from John Madden, but there are certain guys who have that extra gear that other good players just don't have. The 60 yard TD, he looked like a rocket and several of his yards of 6+ yards also had a burst to it that you don't usually see. Purple Jesus is going to be a star.
• Defense - This is much more difficult. BRHCP gave the gameball to Udeze cause he finally got a sack, but I'm not willing to give it to Kenechi. Kevin Williams is a solid pick with the pick-6, but I expect big things from this big time player. My gameball goes to the LB crew. Greenway had 10 tackles, EJ's first game at MLB resulted in 8 tackles and 2 sacks. We need or LB's to be effective and this is the kind of production that will make our defense good enough to win games for us.
• Special Teams - nobody stood out to deserve a gameball

Other Thoughts...

• The defense did not allow the Falcons into the red zone for the entire game. That is impressive and you'll win a lot of games when you keep the endzone at least 20 yards from the line of scrimmage for 60 min.
• Tarvaris Jackson had a nice game. Nothing special and in no way did he win the game for us. BUT he didn't lose the game and he was solid. TJax had 1 INT. It was tipped but it was also a poor decision and thrown behind the receiver. If he plays like this for 15 more games I have no doubt we'll make the playoffs. It should also be noted that TJax spread the ball around to 9 different receivers. According to BRHCP we never saw the KAO last season but I have a feeling this is what is should look like.
  
• 5 Rookies contributed! - Greenway (essentially a rookie) led the team in tackles, AP led the team in rushing and receiving yards, Aundrae Allison caught a pass, Sydney Rice caught a couple passes and Marcus McCauley had 3 tackles. I've said it before but I love our young core of rookies and 2nd year guys (TJax, Cedric Griffin and Ryan Cook).
• 
  

2007 Vikings - Kool-Aid(ed) Preview

OK, PKA is back in the swing of things and I feel the need to put out my Vikings preview. I'm going with a little different angle this year as opposed to last year's position group style.

As stated in a previous post, I am officially predicting 14-2. Nobody reads this blog so there is very little chance for embarrassment on this one, when I prove to be right I traffic will flock here because I am a great football mind!

OFFENSE

BRHCP's KAO is going to be unstoppable (see KEY for help with acronyms). We've been told that if executed properly it is kick ass. Well TJax has had an offseason to learn up on the KAO and he'll be given every opportunity to run it to it's fullest. I like that BRHCP is going to take a step back from calling the plays so he can be a big picture guy on game day, I honestly think this will really help. This offense was absolutely terrible last year and can only get better.

Purple Jesus - (love that nickname by the way, HT to Ragnarok) will be a key guy on this offense. I thought Chester did a great job last year. The OLine struggled all year but Chester was able to make the 1st guy miss on a regular basis and racked up 1200 yards. But PJ has a chance to be a game changer. Both should be fresh throughout the game and for the end of the season. PJ really can be someone who adds a new dimension to this offense and is a bigger threat which will open the passing game a little bit.

KEY PLAYER ON OFFENSE - toss up between Sydney Rice and Robert Ferguson. One of these guys needs to step up and be a legit pass receiving threat. I think Rice has a bright future and Ferguson has the ability to quickly ascend to our #1 WR. I don't care who steps up but somebody has to. If we can develop a passing game to go with out potent running game this offense is worlds apart from 2006.

Biggest question? - more than the passing game I'm worried about the right side of the OLine.

Overall Offensive Prediction - 2006 was the perfect storm of things going wrong. The left side of the OL was very disappointing while the right side was terrible. Brad Wonderbread Johnson was bad, BRHCP struggled to keep his players and his message fresh while he tried to establish what exactly he wanted from his offense. 2007 will be a slight improvement in EVERY area.

• TJax will be better than BJ
• WRs will be better than anybody anticipates
• the left OL will play up to expectations
• the right OL will at least be stable
• the running game will be dominant
• RED ZONE scoring can't be any worse (perfect storm of terribleness last year)

DEFENSE

Don't Regress vs the run - had this defense not totally packed it in and were in a hurry to catch their 3:45 flights out of town, they would have been the best run defense in history (statistically speaking). And in all honesty I think they'll be just as good (if not better) vs. the run. There has been nothing but great reviews of Greenway this preseason and EJ has seemingly transitioned back to MLB quite well. The DLine is essentially the same and our safeties are great at stopping the run. I see no reason to think we won't stop the run with the same tenacity as 2006.

Slow down the pass just a little (PLEASE) - Winfield is one of the best corners out there and our safeties are solid as well. I find it crazy how bad this team was vs. the pass last year. I am a big fan of Cedric Griffin and I think we will be much better vs. the pass this year. We will still give up a lot of total yards because teams will HAVE to pass on us. But we'll have more INTs and instead of giving up 240 pass yards per game it will be closer to 205.

Don't be so harsh on Udeze - I know he didn't have a sack all year and pressure on the QB was a problem. But he did tie for the team lead in tackles for losses and clearly contributed to an historic run stopping defense. I am taking the approach this year that we don't need him to be a sack guy. If he finishes the season with 2 or 3 sacks plus another 8-10 tackles for losses then he has done his job.

KEY PLAYER ON DEFENSE - Ray Edwards, this is related to my Udeze theory. If Udeze does his part in run stoppage again this year, that means we HAVE to get some sacks from the other end spot. I don't see James being that guy and it looks like Edwards is getting the start at LE. He has to get to the QB and put pressure on him. If he does then Udeze produces more and the pass defense gets a little relief (like 20-30 yards per game).

Overall Defensive Prediction - just give me a little pass defense and this defense gives us a chance to win every game. It is that simple.

14-2 - is a bit of a stretch, but I really feel that our offense will be slightly better and our pass defense will also be slightly better. It really doesn't take much to go from 6-10 to 9-7. Change 3 plays from 2006 and this team was 9-7. The Chicago home game, the SF road game and the Miami road game. All had 1 play that went horribly wrong and ended in a L. I know most teams can say that (except Chicago who had everything go just right, more on that later) but I don't think this team is as far off as everyone seems to think they are.

QB Theories...

Since I am a follower I will chime in with my pirated thoughts (maybe I pillaged these ideas but you get the idea) about the Vikings QB situation...

Pretty much throughout the spring I was convinced that despite all of the "hoopla" and anticipation for he TJax era to begin, Brooks Bollinger would start at QB for the Vikings much of 2007. I think TJax has plenty of potential and he may be very good, but really your best chance to actually win games this season would be on the arm of Brooks. I have cooled on this theory lately. Here are some popular QB Theories out there today...

McNabb Theory - unfortunately I think that this is the prevalent feeling (hope) amongst Vikings fans, primarily those drinking the Kool Aid. People in this camp are convinced that TJax is the next McNabb and will be that good in 2007. There is "some" rationale behind this theory. Both are athletic QBs with good arms and both were coached by Brad the Red Hot Childress Pepper. But there are some stark differences. McNabb came from a BCS school, was a certain 1st round draft pick and overall a relatively known commodity. TJax came from a tiny school, was likely only a 2nd round pick thanks to the Vikings and was considered a project. These things don't disqualify you as an NFL QB but it demonstrates how McNabb came to the NFL more polished and ready to play with this caliber of athlete. Down the road TJax may be a great NFL QB but I fully expect his learning curve to be a little bit longer due to his background. How good TJax will be in a year or two is irrelevant cause the NFL is a win now (or at least very soon) or bust league.

Rex Grossman Theory - Brooks is serviceable at best. He is not in any way going to WIN you games. Maybe, just maybe he won't lose you games but he is a poor man's Rex Grossman (and Rex Grossman is a poor man's NFL QB). Brooks will give you more consistency. Fewer big mistakes but equally as few big plays. The theory here is that if TJax can just be a game manager and not lose games he'll be just fine. The problem is I think TJax will be the antithesis. I would anticipate some big mistakes but I also see him making more plays, getting 3rd & longs with his legs or an occasional big play with his arm. If your net results between the 2 QBs is even close, TJax has to be your starter. And really I don't want TJax to play Rex style football. I want him to be allowed to make mistakes and in the near future he'll be a playmaker and will win games for us.

The Matt Schaub Theory - Why oh Why didn't we trade for Matt Schaub, or sign a quality veteran QB. But do you really think that Matt Schaub is the answer? Does an aging Jeff Garcia or Kerry Collins really give you a better shot at winning? If you think yes, then why not just bring back Brad Johnson? Truth is there just wasn't much out there for a good veteran this year. You can roll your dice on wisdom over talent or you can take a shot with talent over age/big contract. And Schaub? Well, his numbers don't tell you anything except that there is a 50/50 shot that he'll be the next Scott Mitchell (thank you Detroit for signing him).

I would have enjoyed giving David Carr a shot. Bring him in and if he wins the QB1 job then let him run with it, if not then you aren't any worse off then you were before.

The TJax Theory - here is my take on it all. Basically if week 1 comes along, both current QBs are healthy and Brooks is your starter I think that is a bigger statement about TJax's inability to run an offense than it is about Brooks' ability to get us in the W column. TJax has to be given time to learn and grow as a QB in this league. In year 2 of his career with a young offense, you have to let him struggle and learn to play at NFL speed. I used to coach basketball at the collegiate level and the biggest thing incoming freshmen had to adjust to was the speed. Everything is just a little bit faster. Once they adjusted, the game slowed down and these talented kids could get back to making plays and making shots that they were accustomed to making. TJax has to get used to NFL speed, like all QBs it will take time but eventually the game will slow down, defenses will be easier to read, he'll know where his WRs are on the field and he'll start making plays. If you wait till 2008 to let him play we'll have to watch this maturing process then instead of now.

If he is utterly incapable of running the offense in September then you can't start him. If Brooks is clearly outplaying him and has earned the QB1 job by a couple steps then you have to go with Brooks. It is still about winning games. But if the competition is even close, then TJax has to be the guy.

Sometime soon I will have to post about my excitement surrounding this young offense and the potential it has in a couple years.

This is our year! (drink that Kool-Aid folks)

I'm sure everyone has been wondering where have I been the last few months. All you've gotten was a spattering of posts since the end of the season. To be honest I have been inspired by the honesty, fortitude and courage of certain young women who took the difficult step of admitting they have a problem and sought help. So, much like Lindsey Lohan and Britney Spears I went into rehab for my addiction. If you haven't heard much about my self-admittance it is because I wouldn't let my PR people put it out there to be spun by the paparazzi into something ugly and untrue.

Unfortunatly I was not as strong as the brave women mentioned above and I have not been able to deny myself the life sustaining PURPLE KOOL-AID that I desperately need. I was barely able to make it through Free Agency, the Draft and of course the recent OTAs. But now there is a lull until training camp and I just HAD to get my fix.

I'm telling you folks, THIS IS OUR YEAR! Brad the Red Hot Childress Pepper has the coaches and players he wants to run his Kick Ass Offense (KAO, which btw you read HERE first before Tom Powers stole it HERE.)!

I'll explain why this is our year, but I have to go call my sponser.

For now here were my thoughts on the 2007 offense and defense pre-NFL Draft and free agency.

KEY

BRHCP - Brad the Red Hot Childress Pepper

KAO - Kick Ass Offense

Purple Jesus (PJ) - Adrian Peterson, this term is stolen from Ragnarok. But it is good and I will help proliferate it. AP is an OK nickname but PJ is better.

TJax - Tarvaris Jackson. Boring nickname buts it's the best I've got for now. And it is so much easier than spelling Tavarius?...Tarvaris?...Travius...Trapazoid...TJax!

TYSW - Troy-You Suck-Williamson - I just made this one up right now. It will be used until further notice.

Chad I'm Not Mike Miller I'm the other guy from South Dakota Greenway - nevermind, that's too long, I'll stick with Greenway.